US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) Despite the much bigger than generally expected 4.2% m/m surge in orders in June (consensus forecast was 1.4%, Capital Economics was 4.0%), the latest durable goods report actually suggests that... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s consumer prices and industrial production releases had something for everyone at the Fed but, on balance, they leave the central bank on course to slow the pace of its asset purchases at the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Sales losing a bit of momentum The disappointing rise in retail sales values in June increases the chances that GDP grew at an annualised rate of less than 1% in the second quarter. Even more worrying is that sales growth appears... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The trivial drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 83.9 in July, from 84.1, was probably in reaction to the recent sharp decline in stock markets. But since equity prices... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun. 13) Any doubts (or hopes!) that the Fed wouldn’t follow through on its plan to taper QE3 later this year in response to some of the recent weaker activity data were dealt a major blow by the 195,000... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) & ADP Survey (Jun.) The sharp widening in the international trade deficit in May suggests that second-quarter annualised GDP growth may be even weaker than the 1.5% we have been expecting. At the same time, the... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 13) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index back above the supposed boom/bust level of 50 in June means that the US economy has passed the first of this week’s two QE3 tapering tests. We expect June’s... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The increase in Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a five-and-a-half-year high of 81.4 in June, from 74.3, was quite surprising given that the usual determinants of sentiment didn't... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) While the 3.6% m/m jump in durable goods orders in May was mainly due to a 51% m/m rebound in volatile commercial aircraft orders, the rest of the report was relatively upbeat. Even if second-quarter... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Thanks to some unfavourable base effects, the annual rate of headline CPI inflation rebounded to 1.4% in May, from 1.1%, even though prices increased by only 0.1% m/m last month specifically... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 82.7 in June, from 84.5, reversed only part of the sharp gain of May. While the details of the report point to solid... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (May) The recent weakness of the global economy explains why both industrial activity and core producer price pressures are still subdued. Producers have had little choice but to reflect the previous sharp... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May 13) May’s retail sales figures revealed some tentative signs that households are getting over January’s tax hikes and may be starting to spend some of the cash freed up by the recent fall in gasoline... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) By revealing a decent rise in payroll employment but a small rise in the unemployment rate, May’s Employment Report had something for everyone. Our reading is that it leaves the Fed on track to taper... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $40.3bn in April, from $37.1bn in March, was largely due to an unwinding of the distortion caused by the Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday. 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a near four-year low of 49.0 in May, from 50.7, suggests that weak global conditions are weighing on US producers. While the manufacturing sector is... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
