US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) We doubt that the fall in CPI inflation in August will prevent the Fed from announcing a tapering of its asset purchases at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting tomorrow. Indeed, the risk of a... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) & Empire State Index (Sep.) American producers appear to be benefitting from a steady flow of orders from overseas linked to the recent upswing in demand in Asia and Europe. 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The decline in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to a five-month low of 76.8 in September, from 82.1, reflects the surge in interest rates and the drop in stock markets, although... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s retail sales data weren’t as good as expected, but they still suggest that underlying consumption growth is accelerating. Although next week’s Fed decision will be a close call, we still... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August's Employment Report is a mixed bag that can be used either to support an immediate tapering of the Fed's monthly asset purchases or to delay that move. Our best guess is that the cumulative... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $39.1bn in July, from $34.5bn in June, is nothing to worry about. For a start, it didn't even fully reverse the unexpected decline in the deficit in June... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) Another rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 28-month high of 55.7 in August, after the surge to 55.4 in July, suggests that the improvement in overseas activity is benefiting US producers. This... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The much bigger than expected 7.3% m/m decline in July's durable goods orders dampens hopes of a pick-up in the growth rate of business investment in the third quarter. 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 80.0 in August, from 85.1, reversed only part of the sharp gains of the previous three months. Since most... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul.) The fading of the downward pressure on core inflation and the fall in initial jobless claims to a six-year low mean that the odds on the Fed beginning to taper QE3 next month have shortened further. 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s retail sales data suggest that in response to the recent gains in employment, equity prices, house prices and the modest improvement in the availability of credit, households have started to... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The unexpectedly severe narrowing in the monthly external trade deficit to a near four-year low of $34.2bn in June, from $44.1bn, suggests that second quarter GDP growth was significantly stronger... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 162,000 increase in non-farm payrolls was a little below the consensus forecast at 185,000, but this isn't going to stop the Fed from reducing its monthly asset purchases at September's FOMC... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The entire surge in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year high of 55.4 in July, from 50.9, was due to an improvement in domestic activity. This new level is consistent with a further acceleration... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) Real GDP growth actually accelerated from 1.1% annualised in the first quarter to 1.7% in the second, suggesting that the recovery is gaining momentum and probably strengthening the Fed's resolve to... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Despite impressive gains in equity prices, the recent rebound in gasoline prices and rising interest rates hit consumer confidence in July. The Conference Board measure dropped back modestly to 80.3... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
