US Data Response Int. Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & ULC (Q3) The trade deficit widened to a four-month high of $41.8bn in September, from $38.7bn, suggesting that third-quarter GDP growth will need to be revised down to around 2.5% annualised, from 2.8%. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The much bigger than expected 204,000 gain in October's non-farm payrolls, combined with a cumulative 60,000 upward revision to the gains in the two preceding months will mostly definitely increase... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The further drop in the University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence to a two-year low of 72.0 in November, from 73.2, is hard to explain given that the government reopened, the labour market... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The pick-up in third-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised, from 2.0%, was largely due to a bigger than expected boost from inventory accumulation, which added 0.8% points to the headline figure. At... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The unexpected rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half-year high of 56.4 in October, from 56.2, suggests that manufacturers weren't notably affected by the government shutdown. The... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & ADP Payrolls (Oct.) The decline in CPI inflation in September and signs of weaker jobs growth in October support the now widespread view that the Fed won’t begin to taper its monthly asset purchases until next year. 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The sharp drop in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a six-month low of 71.2 in October, from 80.2, probably reflects the impact from the shutdown. (The survey period ended on... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption growth gained momentum at the end of the third quarter. And the government shutdown is unlikely to have changed the picture too much at the... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production gained some momentum in September and, once the hit from the government shutdown has passed, industry should be supported by the modest global recovery and the fall in the dollar... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) Despite the better than expected 3.7% m/m jump in durable goods orders in September, which was almost entirely due to a bounce back in the volatile aircraft category, it appears that third-quarter... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The monthly trade deficit was basically unchanged at $38.8bn in August, suggesting that net external trade had a neutral impact on overall third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was near 2.0%... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep 13.) Despite the further decline in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.2% in September, from 7.3%, the disappointing 148,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month will reinforce market... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response NFIB Small Business Survey (Sep.) September’s NFIB survey suggests that small businesses became more downbeat on the prospects for the economy ahead of the Federal government shutdown. The longer the shutdown continues, the more... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The further increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a 29-month high of 56.2 in September, from 55.7, reflects the recent improvement in both domestic and overseas economic conditions. While this... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The slightly better than expected 0.1% m/m rise in durable good orders in August is largely explained by an inexplicably small decline in commercial aircraft bookings. Otherwise, the modest rebounds... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The modest drop in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 79.7 in September, from 81.8, reflects a combination of higher interest rates and lower equity prices... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
