US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Although the modest 0.2% m/m gain in December's retail sales suggests that retailers had a disappointing holiday season, the truth is that underlying spending was strong. Indeed, over the fourth... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) We suspect that the unexpectedly weak 74,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December is largely explained by the unseasonably severe winter weather last month. Under those circumstances, we still expect... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to a four-year low of $34.3bn in November, from $39.3bn, suggesting that fourth-quarter GDP growth could turn out to be above 3.0% annualised. 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The tiny fall in the ISM manufacturing index in December did little to dampen the usual New Year optimism as the survey remains consistent with annualised GDP growth of a healthy 3%. 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Nov.) The better-than-consensus 3.5% m/m jump in durable goods orders in November, although partly due to a bounce back in the volatile aircraft category, suggests that fourth-quarter business investment in... 24th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) We’re not convinced that the low rate of inflation in November will prevent the Fed from announcing tomorrow that it will begin to taper its asset purchases, although the decision remains finely... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The strong increase in November took the level of industrial production back above the pre-recession peak for the first time and provided more evidence that economic growth is gaining momentum. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November’s retail sales figures suggest that the holiday shopping season began on a strong note. Real consumption growth in the fourth quarter is on course to be at least double the third quarter’s 1... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The sharp rise in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a five-month high of 82.5 in December, from 75.1, presumably reflects the strength of the labour market and the upward... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment (Nov.) & Income/Spending (Oct.) The 203,000 increase in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the drop in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.0%, gives the Fed all the evidence it needs to begin tapering its asset... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Payrolls (Nov.) The trade deficit narrowed to $40.6bn in October, from $43.0bn, but that decline only partly reversed the widening in September. Looking through the month-to-month volatility, the trade deficit... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The unexpected increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year high of 57.3 in November, from 56.4, suggests that activity is receiving a boost from both stronger domestic and... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The continuing slump in non-defence capital goods (ex. aircraft) orders and shipments suggests that business equipment investment might contract over the entire second half of this year. 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Despite a strengthening labour market, record-high equity prices and lower gasoline prices, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence actually fell to a seven-month low of 70.4 in November... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The acceleration in retail sales growth in October is one of a few reasons why the Fed is unlikely to be too concerned by the fall in CPI inflation to a four-year low of 1.0%, from 1.2% in September. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) & Empire State Index (Nov.) There is no evidence that the fall in industrial production in October is a temporary effect triggered by the government shutdown that will be reversed in November. But equally, the rise in... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
