US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) While the ISM manufacturing index rebounded to 53.2 in February, from 51.3, the extent of the increase was limited because of the ongoing severe winter weather. We expect a further improvement in... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The 1.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders was mainly due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. More generally, there is some evidence that the growth rate of... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The drop in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to 78.1 in February, from 79.4, was probably weather-related, with a massive storm hitting the eastern seaboard during the sample period. Now... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan. 14) It’s possible that the unusually bad weather is masking a strengthening in underlying consumer price pressure that will only become clear in a few months’ time. Despite the fall to 1.6% in January... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Jan.) The revamp of the producer prices data has made the release much more comprehensive, but it hasn’t changed the bigger picture. There is not much sign of any near-term inflationary pressure. 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s industrial production data join a growing list of economic releases affected by the unusually bad weather. Given that the weather has been just as severe in February, the lost output may not... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Some of the weakness in retail sales in January was probably due to the bad weather. Nonetheless, it looks as though GDP growth in both the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The disappointing 113,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January cannot be blamed on the weather but, nonetheless, with the unemployment rate continuing to edge lower, to only 6.6% last month, we... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $38.7bn in December, from $34.6bn, means that fourth-quarter GDP growth will likely be revised down slightly to about 2.9% annualised in the second estimate... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The unexpected plunge in the ISM manufacturing index to an eight-month low of 51.3 in January, from 56.5, appears to have more to do with the unseasonably severe winter weather, than a major slowdown... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) When we take into account the near three-week Federal government shutdown at the start of the quarter, the 3.2% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP growth is pretty impressive, particularly since it... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) In spite of the unseasonably severe winter weather, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to 80.7 in January, from 77.5. This probably reflects the continued improvement in labour... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec 13.) The 1.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders was mainly due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. More generally, there is some evidence that the growth rate of... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite record high stock markets and gradually improving labour market conditions, the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence dropped back to 80.4 in January, from 82.5. Nevertheless... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) With both domestic and overseas demand improving, the timid increase in industrial production in December does little to alter our view that 2014 could be a stellar year for American producers. 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) With core CPI inflation steady at 1.7%, as upward pressure from shelter inflation offset a fall in medical care inflation, December’s CPI data won’t prevent the Fed from further trimming its asset... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
