US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The slight drop in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence, to 82.3 in April from 83.9, appears to have been due to weaker labour market conditions. As this decline was trivial and... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) Although durable goods orders rose by a decent 2.6% m/m in March, the details of the survey suggest that the growth rate of business investment in equipment slowed down to roughly 2.0% annualised in... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar 14.) With industrial production rising at a decent pace in March, the economy is now starting to show its true colours after the weakness triggered by the bleakest of winters. There is scope for production... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar 14.) The rebound in CPI inflation to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, is partly due to the reversal of the base effects that pushed it down in February. Nonetheless, more permanent trends will lift both headline... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The leap in retail sales in March is mainly due to the unwinding of the distortion caused by the unusually bad weather in previous months. This means first-quarter real consumption growth was probably... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rise in consumer confidence in April reflects a reversal of the earlier weather-related hit to confidence, as well as record high stock markets and improving labour market conditions. These... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The solid 192,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, along with the bounce back in average weekly hours worked to a four-month high of 34.5, from 34.3, confirms that the recent spate of weakness... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The unexpected widening in the monthly trade deficit to a five-month high of $42.3bn in February, from $39.3bn, suggests that first-quarter GDP growth was only 1.5% annualised, lower than our previous... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The trivial increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 53.7 in March, from 53.2, suggests that the sector is slowly recovering from the weather-related disruption at the start of the year. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 2.2% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in February, which was more than double the consensus estimate of a 0.8% m/m gain, was largely due to a big bounce back in the transportation component... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a six-year high of 82.3 in March, from 78.3, reflects mainly a reversal of the weather effects from a month ago. With equity... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in CPI inflation to only 1.1% in February, from 1.6%, won’t influence tomorrow’s policy decision by the Fed, as it is solely due to base effects that will be reversed in March. Core inflation... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The rebound in industrial production in February suggests that the economy is waking up after hibernating during the past few months of unusually bad weather. This makes it even more likely that the... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Mar.) Most of the decline in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to 79.9 in March, from 81.6, can be attributed to the unseasonably bad weather. After all, the usual determinants of... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) As the rise in retail sales in February didn’t get anywhere close to reversing all of the drop in the previous two months, the unusually bad weather is still hurting retailers. But since households... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The fact that payroll employment rebounded in February despite the unusually bad weather pretty much guarantees that the Fed will taper its asset purchases further at the mid-March policy meeting. 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
