US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) With core CPI inflation rising to 2.0% in May, from 1.8% in April, the Fed will have to acknowledge in tomorrow’s policy statement that price pressures are building. The chances that it will hike... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production data are a timely reminder ahead of this week’s Fed policy meeting that activity is bouncing back after the disappointment of the first quarter. What’s more, the latest... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The trivial decline in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to 81.2 in June, from 81.9, was mainly driven by steadily rising gasoline prices. Since most of the other key... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) Since the weak increase in retail sales in May is at odds with rising employment, easier access to credit and increasing household wealth, it probably won’t be long before sales start to rise more... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The robust 217,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in May is another illustration that the economy is back on the right track after the earlier weather-related weakness. 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The monthly trade deficit widened to a two-year high of $47.2bn in April, from an upwardly revised $44.2bn in March. The 0.2% m/m decline in April's exports, coupled with the 1.2% m/m rise in imports... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) They say that the third time is the charm. Let's hope so for the ISM's sake. The ISM has realised that not only did it make a crucial “software error” in its seasonal adjustments but, even once it had... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The modest 0.8% m/m rise in durable goods orders in April was largely due to an unexpectedly strong surge in defence orders. Indeed, excluding defence, orders actually fell by 0.8% m/m, almost exactly... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 83.0 in May, from 81.7, is mainly a reflection of the improving labour market conditions, the upward trend in equity prices and... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (May) The fall in consumer confidence in May comes at the end of a week in which we also received weak retail sales and industrial production numbers. But we think that the underlying trend in economic... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Apr.) A widespread pick up in price pressures is now underway, which we think will result in both the CPI and PCE measures of core inflation rising above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the fall in... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr 14.) April’s retail sales release suggested that GDP growth in the first quarter was a bit stronger than previously thought, but that the rebound in the second quarter may turn out to be a little smaller... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $40.4bn in March, from $41.9bn, was a smaller narrowing than the BEA had assumed in its initial estimate of first-quarter GDP growth. Accordingly, when added... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The above-consensus 288,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April and the corresponding drop in the unemployment rate to a four-and-a-half-year low of 6.3% underline why the markets and the Fed were... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a four-month high of 54.9 in April, from 53.7, illustrates that the factory sector is still getting back to normal after the earlier weather-related... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The unexpectedly weak 0.1% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP growth, which was markedly below the consensus forecast of a 1.2% gain, was principally due to the unusually severe winter weather. As... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
