US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The muted 0.2% m/m rise in industrial production in May adds to the evidence that the economy is slowing. But there is still little in activity data to suggest a recession is on the horizon, or to... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales in May and downward revisions to previous months’ gains suggest that surging prices might finally be taking their toll on real consumption. But with the latter still... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The surprise increase in headline inflation to a 40-year high of 8.6% in May, from 8.3%, together with another strong rise in core prices raises the odds that the Fed will need to extend its series of... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The bigger than expected drop back in the trade deficit in April suggests that net trade will be a large boost to second-quarter GDP growth, with the risks to our forecast for growth of 4.8%... 7th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The better than anticipated 390,000 gain in non-farm payrolls adds to the signs that the economy is still strong while, amid a rebound in the labour force, wage growth is beginning to moderate. With... 3rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 56.1 in May, from 55.4, was better than we had anticipated and suggests a continued easing of supply shortages is supporting activity. But we expect a... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The modest 0.4% m/m rise in durable goods orders in April suggests that rate-sensitive business equipment investment growth is beginning to slow, with underlying capital goods shipments consistent... 25th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.8% rise in manufacturing output last month underlines that it is not just consumer spending powering the economy forward. While the survey evidence suggests global manufacturing demand is... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Never bet against the US consumer has always been a good adage to bear in mind throughout my 20-plus years in the markets. Despite the surge in prices weighing on their purchasing power, the US... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The falls in headline and core inflation in April marks the beginning of a sustained decline, as base effects improve and supply shortages ease, although the 0.6% monthly jump in core prices indicates... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The solid 428,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in April illustrates that the Fed was right to ignore the misleading contraction in first-quarter GDP, with the economy still on a firm footing... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The surge in the trade deficit to a record high of $109.8bn in March, from $89.8bn, was driven by a huge rise in imports as port congestion cleared. We suspect imports will fall back over the coming... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 20-month low of 55.4 in April, from 57.1, is mostly due to weakening demand amid a broader slowdown in global manufacturing, rather than a renewed... 2nd May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) The unexpectedly severe 1.4% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP probably won't stop the Fed from hiking interest rates by 50bp next week, since officials will chalk it up to the temporary impact... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The solid increase in durable goods orders in March reflects both easing supply shortages as well as strong underlying investment demand. Business equipment investment is usually one of the more rate... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The strong 0.9% rise in industrial production in March reflected a sharp rebound in autos production as well as another big increase in mining output. The US will not be immune to the global slowdown... 15th April 2022 · 2 mins read
