US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jul.) The surge in industrial production in July offsets the weaker news on retail salesreleased earlier this week, suggesting that the recovery remains intact. 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The weakness of retail sales in July is at odds with the recent acceleration in income growth, rises in household wealth and greater availability of credit, which all suggest that the outlook for... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The decline in the monthly trade deficit to a five-month low of $41.5bn in June, from$44.7bn, means that second-quarter GDP growth will be revised even higher from theinitial estimate of 4.0%... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year high in July suggests that the third quarter began on a high note. The index is consistent with the 4.0% annualised gain in GDP in the second... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) It is a sign of how far the US economy has come in recent months that the 209,000increase in non-farm payroll employment in July will probably be viewed as adisappointment in the markets. The... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) Not only did second-quarter GDP rebound by 4.0% annualised, but the decline in thefirst quarter was trimmed to 2.1%, from 2.9%, and other revisions show the economygrowing at an even faster pace than... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Surge in confidence to near 7-year high hard to justify The surge in the Conference Board's consumer confidence measure to a six-and-a-half year high of 90.4 in July, from 86.4 in June, looks a bit suspicious, even if we allow for the recent drop back in... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) June’s durable goods orders data suggest that the rebound in business investment inthe second quarter was a bit smaller than we had been expecting. Nonetheless,annualised GDP growth in the second... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The softer tone of June’s consumer price figures does little to change our view that core inflation will rise faster than the Fed expects. There is still plenty of evidence that the decline in spare... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The rise in gasoline prices was behind the dip in consumer confidence in July. But rising equity prices and the improving labour market should help consumer confidence to increase before too long. 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jun.) The modest 0.1% m/m gain in manufacturing output in June looks disappointing, but the manufacturing sector actually enjoyed a strong second quarter and the improvement in the survey evidence points to... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Sales figures better than they look At first glance, the apparently lacklustre 0.2% m/m increase in June's retail sales, which was well below our own 0.6% estimate, would seem to suggest that consumption ended the second quarter on a... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun. 14) The evident strength of the labour market in June is one of the key reasons why we think that the Fed will be persuaded to begin raising interest rates earlier than most expect. The unemployment rate... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The ISM manufacturing index was broadly unchanged in June and is still consistent with annualised GDP growth rebounding to almost 3% in the second quarter. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 Final) & Durable Goods (May) Although the bigger than expected fall in GDP in the first quarter has forced us to revise down our forecast for growth in 2014 as a whole, it doesn’t alter our view that the economy is fundamentally... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose to a six-year high of 85.2 in June, from 82.2, as the positive effects from an improving labour market and record high equity prices trumped... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
