US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The stagnation in durable goods orders in July was principally due to a 50% m/m slump in defence aircraft orders, which are both volatile and not reflective of the strength of private demand... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) While overall retail sales were unchanged in July, the details were far more encouraging, with a price-related fall in gasoline sales freeing up households to increase spending on other goods. With... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production in July was much stronger than we expected and provides another clear sign that the economy is still in expansionary territory. That said, the likely drag on... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Consumer prices were unchanged in July and there's a good chance that prices will fall outright in August. With core consumer prices increasing by a more modest 0.3% m/m last month, which was a 10... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The unexpected acceleration in non-farm payroll growth in July, together with the further decline in the unemployment rate and the renewed pick-up in wage pressures, suggests the economy is still a... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (June) The fall in the trade deficit to an eight-month low of $79.6bn in June, from $84.9bn, leaves net trade well placed to support a rebound in GDP in the third quarter. But with the surveys consistent... 4th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) Although the ISM manufacturing index fell again in July, to 52.8 from 53.0, the rate of decline does at least appear to be slowing and, for now, it remains consistent with GDP growth of roughly 1.5%... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) The 0.9% annualised fall in GDP in the second quarter is disappointing but doesn’t mean the economy is in recession. The decline was partly due to a huge drag from inventories, while most other... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The jump in durable goods orders in June mainly reflected a surge in defence aircraft orders. Private equipment investment growth still looks to have slowed in the second quarter, although the latest... 27th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The decline in industrial production in June, led by a fall in manufacturing output, could reflect weaker demand for goods, but we suspect that it is also due to the zero-covid shutdowns in China... 15th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The 1.0% m/m rise in retail sales in June isn’t as good as it looks, as it mainly reflects the boost to nominal sales values from surging prices. Real consumption appears to have been largely stagnant... 15th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger than expected 1.3% rise in consumer prices in June, which pushed headline inflation to 9.1%, from 8.6%, nails on another 75bp rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. But with commodity prices... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The strong 372,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June appears to make a mockery of claims the economy is heading into, let alone already in, a recession. That may be enough to solidify the case for... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The further narrowing in the trade deficit in May reflects the strength of exports and implies that net trade provided a decent boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was close to 1%... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year low of 53.0 in June, from 56.1, will probably add to fears over the health of the economy. That said, for now it is still consistent on past form... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The surprisingly robust 0.7% rise in durable goods orders last month was much better than some of the downbeat survey evidence had suggested and is consistent with business equipment investment growth... 27th June 2022 · 2 mins read
