US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 38,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in May, which is still only 73,000 if we adjust for the 35,000 striking Verizon workers, means that a June rate hike from the Fed is now very unlikely.... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 51.3 in May, from 50.8, still leaves it at a level that has historically has been consistent with GDP growth of only 2%. But the services side of the... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Cons. Conf. (May) & Pers. Spending (Apr.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 92.6 in May, from 94.7, could potentially be the first signal that the presidential election is beginning to weigh on the economy... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 3.4% m/m surge in durable goods orders in April was principally due to a 64.9% m/m jump in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component, which will probably be reversed in May. Otherwise... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Ind. Prod (Apr.) The 0.4% m/m increase in consumer prices was the biggest gain since February 2013 and reflects primarily a strong rebound in energy prices. More generally, the rebound in commodity prices we’ve seen... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) & Consumer Confidence (May) The retail sales and consumer confidence reports show that recent claims of the demise of the US consumer have been greatly exaggerated. Thanks to a massive 0.9% m/m gain in control sales in April and... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The more modest 160,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April will have caught a few people out, after all the consensus forecast was as high as 200,000, but the out-turn was broadly in line with our own... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The decline in the trade deficit to a 13-month low of $40.4bn in March, from $47.0bn, was largely due to seasonal distortions created by the shifting date of the New Year holiday in China. 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr.) The modest drop back in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.8 in April, from 51.8, is a bit disappointing, but that April figure is still the second highest reading in the past eight months. At its... 2nd May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The very modest 0.5% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, which represents a significant slowdown on the already moderate 1.4% gain in the final quarter of last year, was due to a number of headwinds... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) The weakness in non-defence durable goods orders and the dip in consumer confidence do not chang eour view that, after a disappointing first quarter, GDP growth will rebound in the second, helped by a... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod’n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) At first glance, the reported declines in industrial production and consumer confidence suggest the recovery is losing momentum. But the remarkable turnaround in the activity surveys points to a mini... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The more modest 0.1% m/m increase in March consumer prices, which was below the consensus estimate of a 0.2% m/m gain, was principally because of a 1.1% m/m drop back in clothing prices. 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales was slightly weaker than consensus expectations and was mainly due to a 2.1% m/m decline in auto sales. More importantly, while the 0.1% m/m increase in control... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Feb.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high of $47.1bn in February, from $45.9bn, means that net exports will be a drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we now think was around 1.5%... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 215,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in March highlights once again that, even though GDP growth has been underwhelming over the past six months, the labour market remains unusually strong. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
