US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & Int. Trade (Jun.) The better than expected 255,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July will renew speculation that the Fed might hike interest rates as soon as this September, but we still think Fed officials will... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (July 2016) After last week’s disappointing second-quarter GDP data, the very minor fall in the ISM manufacturing index in July should soothe fears that the US economy is heading into a more serious downturn... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The disappointing 1.2% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP growth, combined with the downward revisions to gains in the preceding two quarters, make a September interest rate hike much less likely... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The 4.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders in June, was principally due to a sharp decline in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category. Otherwise, the details of the report confirm that... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The trivial decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in July left the index still at a high level by historical standards. It also supports our view that, after what could turn... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & Cons. Confidence (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production was better than consensus forecast of a 0.3% m/m gain, primarily because of the stronger-than-expected rebound in manufacturing output. 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Jun.) The unexpected strength of underlying retail sales in June means that second-quarter GDP growth still appears to have been between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. Real consumption growth will be 4.0%. At... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June 2016) The 287,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in June suggests that the sharp slowdown in the preceding months was nothing more than ablip. Fed officials will want to see evidence of a more sustained... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manu. (Jun.) Despite the widening in the nominal trade deficit to $41.1bn in May, from $37.4bn, net trade probably still provided a small boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we suspect was close to 3%... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 16-month high of 53.2 in June, from 51.3, was much better than consensus expectations and is consistent with GDP growth of a little more than 2%. Indeed... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The sharp rise in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence in June suggests that the recent acceleration in consumer spending growth is set to continue. 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.2% m/m decline in headline orders last month undershot consensus expectations for a more modest 0.5% m/m decline partly because of a weaker than expected gain in the notoriously volatile... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline CPI inflation remained well below the Fed’s target in May, but base effects will push it well above 2% by early next year. Both headline and core consumer prices increased by a solid 0.2% m/m... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.4% m/m decline in industrial production in May, which was slightly worse than consensus expectations, was largely due to a similar-sized slump in output in the struggling manufacturing sector. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The strength of the May retail sales report should provide plenty of comfort to those concerned that the recent slump in payrolls would be followed by a downturn in activity. It still appears that... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence measure was broadly unchanged at an elevated 94.3 in June, which suggests the pick-up in second-quarter consumption growth will continue into the... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
