US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Although industrial production only edged higher in September, the 1.8% annualised rebound for the third quarter as a whole provides further evidence that the economy has regained some momentum, after... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Despite the decline in October, the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence remains at a fairly high level by past standards and consistent with a decent rate of real consumption growth... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m increase in September retail sales was largely due to a rebound in motor vehicle sales, with underlying sales growth now at a three-year low. Real consumption growth was still between 2.5... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep. 16) The more modest 156,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September, combined with the tick up in the unemployment rate to a five-month high of 5.0%, won’t stop the Fed from hiking interest rates at the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Aug.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Sep.) Although the trade deficit widened slightly to $40.7bn in August, from $39.5bn, net external trade is now on track to make a big contribution to third-quarter GDP growth. Elsewhere, the big rebound in... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 16) After a sharp fall in August, the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in September should soothe fears that the US economy is headed for a serious downturn. Nevertheless, the index remains at a... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug. 16) Although durable goods orders were unchanged in August, the details of the report were weak. It now appears that equipment investment contracted in the third quarter, which means the risks to our... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 16) Although core CPI inflation edged higher in August, it has been broadly unchanged this year, suggesting that the Fed doesn’t need to rush to raise interest rates next week. 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 16) The weakness in retail sales and industrial production in August underline that the rebound in third-quarter GDP growth could be weaker than previously hoped, which is another reason for the Fed to... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) & Int. Trade (Jul.) The August employment report is not going to convince Fed officials to vote for a rate hike later this month, although an increase in December is still likely. 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.4 in August, from 52.6, is another reason to believe that the Fed will take a cautious approach and delay the next rate hike until December. With that... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16) The rise in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to an 11-month high of 101.1 in August, from 96.7 leaves the index at a healthy level and suggests that real consumption growth will... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul. 2016) Although the strong rise in durable goods orders in July was partly due to a massive rebound in the ever-volatile commercial aircraft category, the details of the report provide tentative evidence... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 16) Headline CPI inflation remained unusually low in July and the latest drop in energy prices will keep it below 2% for longer than we first thought. Core consumer prices rose by 0.1% m/m, which was... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16) The small rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in August suggests that the weaker-than-expected July retail sales figures were a blip rather than the start of a more... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul. 16) Retail sales were unchanged in July, as a rebound in motor vehicle sales was largely offset by a price-related drop back in the value of gasoline station sales. After a clearly unsustainable 4.2%... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
