US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in October was mainly a result of the unwinding of the distortion caused by the spike in soybean exports earlier in the summer. It also suggests that net trade... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November’s employment report wasn’t perfect, with average hourly earnings contracting by 0.1% m/m, but the solid 178,000 gain in payroll employment and the drop in the unemployment rate to a nine-year... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to a five-month high of 53.2 in November, from 51.9, is another illustration that the US factory sector is gradually recovering from the impact of the... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The surge in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to a nine-year high in November echoes the improvement in other measures and suggests that the election result had a clear positive impact... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The strong rise in headline durable goods orders in October was largely due to a surge in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category. That said, even excluding transport, the details of the... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Although the modest monthly gain in core prices pushed the annual core inflation rate down to 2.1% in October, from 2.2%, the details still suggest that underlying price pressures are gradually... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The stagnation of industrial production in October, which was weaker than the consensus forecast but in line with our own estimate, was entirely due to a weather-related slump in utilities output... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The solid 0.8% m/m increase in retail sales in October brings to an abrupt end the run of weaker underlying sales gains over the past few months and, further, suggests that households were not unduly... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in November suggests that last-minute worries about the presidential election had little bearing on sentiment. With the impact of... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The solid gain in employment and the acceleration in hourly wage growth in October will reinforce expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates in December (assuming that the election doesn’t... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The modest pick-up in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-month high of 51.9 in October, from 51.5, echoes the apparent improvement in global manufacturing conditions, in particular the latest rise... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The modest pick-up in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-month high of 51.9 in October, from 51.5, echoes the apparent improvement in global manufacturing conditions, in particular the latest rise... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The bigger than expected 2.9% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP confirms that the economic recovery has regained some of the momentum lost within the last year. As such, this leaves the Fed firmly... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) Despite the 0.1% m/m decline in headline orders last month, September’s durable goods report is actually a very slight positive as far as third-quarter GDP growth is concerned. 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 16) Despite the decline in the Conference Board index of consumer confidence in October, it is still at a level consistent with annualised consumption growth of more than 2.5%. Furthermore, given that the... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Although headline CPI inflation increased to a two-year high of 1.5% in September, the more modest gain in core consumer prices suggests that underlying price pressures are building only very... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
