US Data Response Int’l Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & Labour Costs (Q3) A drop back in exports and small rebound in imports means the trade deficit bounced back to $73.3bn in September, from a downwardly revised $65.7bn. With that weakness in exports likely to last for... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The further fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.2 in October, from 50.9, illustrates that global economic weakness and the earlier surge in the dollar are catching up with the factory sector... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) & Durable Goods (Sep.) The 2.6% annualised rebound in third-quarter GDP looks impressive, but it was entirely due to a 2.8%-point boost from net external trade. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, a better measure... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output in September, together with some modest upward revisions to prior months, suggests that the factory sector is just about holding up despite the deterioration... 18th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) With retail sales unchanged in September there is still little evidence that the boost to purchasing power from the earlier sharp fall in gasoline prices has helped real consumption. Energy prices are... 14th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The stronger than expected 0.4% rise in consumer prices in September, driven yet again by a stronger increase in core prices, nails on a 75bp rate hike at the November meeting and, in contrast to the... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 263,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September is another signal that labour market conditions are cooling. But with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.5% the report is unlikely to... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The further sharp decline in the trade deficit to $67.4bn in August, from $70.5bn, means that net exports provided a big boost to third-quarter GDP growth. But the twin drags from the surging dollar... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The sharper than expected fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.9 in September, from 52.8, leaves it consistent with GDP growth of just 0.5% annualised. The weakness in activity is helping to ease... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 0.2% m/m fall in durable goods orders in August wasn’t as bad as we expected and suggests that business equipment investment is, for now at least, still holding up in the face of surging interest... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) Manufacturing output edged up by 0.1% m/m in August, as notable gains in petroleum & coal, machinery and electronics were partly offset by a drop back in motor vehicles and parts. With global... 15th September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The stagnation in underlying retail sales in August suggests that plunging gasoline prices are not providing any significant boost to real consumption. But that could change over the coming months as... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m increase in core consumer prices in August, double the consensus expectation, confirms that the Fed will hike its policy rate by at least 75bp next week. Nevertheless, that outsized... 13th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The trade deficit narrowed to a nine-month low of $70.7bn in July, from $80.9bn, driven by a sizeable drop back in consumer goods imports, although almost half that decline was due to lower imports of... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The slower pace of payroll gains in August, together with the big rebound in the labour force, and the more modest increase in wages, would seem to favour a smaller 50bp rate hike from the Fed next... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The stabilisation in the ISM manufacturing index at 52.8 in August, unchanged from July, provides some further reassurance that the economy is not yet sliding into recession. While the details suggest... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
