US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The manufacturing sector appears to be in recession and, even if China’s emergence from its Covid restrictions provide some boost later this year, the deterioration in the survey evidence suggests the... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in December, which followed a downwardly-revised 1.0% fall in November, adds to the evidence from the surveys that the economy was losing momentum towards the end of... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Core CPI inflation was still an elevated 5.7% in December but, with another more muted 0.3% m/m gain, the three-month annualised rate fell to a 20-month low of 3.1%. Admittedly, the latter is still... 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The solid 223,000 gain in non-farm payrolls and drop-back in unemployment to a 50-year low in December will, at face value, do little to ease the Fed’s concerns about resilient core services inflation... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit to $61.5bn in November, from $77.8bn, came as a big fall in exports was offset by an even sharper drop in imports. Net trade still looks to have been a small... 5th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year low of 48.4 in December, from 49.0, is another sign that the economy lost more momentum at the tail-end of last year. Nearly all the... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) Real consumption is on course for solid growth of 3.5% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the income and spending data show that it stalled in November. The soft durable goods orders data for last... 23rd December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.6% m/m falls in retail sales and manufacturing output in November suggest that the economy has lost some serious momentum, with the resilience of consumers to much higher interest rates starting... 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The Fed will still hike its policy rate by 50bp tomorrow and the new projections could show the peak in rates above 5%, but the 0.2% m/m increase in core consumer prices in November provides strong... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The trade deficit widened to $78.2bn in October, from $74.1bn, as the weakness in global demand began to weigh on exports, which declined by $1.9bn. At the same time, imports increased by $2.4bn, as a... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The resilience of the labour market and the resurgence in wage pressures don’t change our view that core price inflation is going to fall more rapidly than the Fed believes, and we still expect... 2nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.0 in November, the lowest reading since the early stages of the pandemic, from 50.2, leaves it at a level consistent with a stagnation in broader... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The solid 1.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in October indicates that business equipment investment continues to hold up reasonably well in the face of higher borrowing costs, helped by a boost to... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct.) The strength of underlying retail sales despite higher borrowing costs is encouraging, but manufacturing is slowly succumbing to the global malaise. 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The better than expected 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in October won’t on its own persuade the Fed to drop its hawkish stance. But we expect this to mark the start of a much longer... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The October employment report had something for everyone, with continued strong gains on the payroll survey while the household measure showed a sharp fall in employment and a rise in unemployment... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
