US Economics Industrial Production (Jun) The modest 0.4% m/m increase in industrial production in June was due to a weather-related spike in utilities demand and a recovery in mining output, with manufacturing output dragged down by another... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The 0.9% m/m surge in both headline and core consumer prices in June was much stronger than we expected and illustrates that temporary supply bottlenecks stemming from the pandemic are still putting... 13th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The stronger 850,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June may be a sign that some of the temporary labour shortages holding back the employment recovery are starting to ease. But with the labour force... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The headline ISM manufacturing index was virtually unchanged at a high level in June, but the far bigger story is the further rise in the prices paid index to 92.1 from 88.0, its highest level since... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.3% m/m rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by another big increase in commercial aircraft orders reflecting the recovery in air travel, with underlying orders weaker than expected... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.8% m/m rise in industrial production in May, driven by a 0.9% gain in manufacturing output, suggests that some of the shortages holding back production in recent months could have eased. But... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 1.3% decline in retail sales in May is arguably a lot better than it looks because there were big upward revisions to the April data and spending on food and drink services posted another solid... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further jump in core CPI inflation to a 28-year high of 3.8% in May, from 3.0%, was again driven by the same handful of categories most directly affect by the lifting of virus restrictions. But... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr) The sharp drop in the trade deficit, to $68.9bn in April from $75.0bn a month earlier, largely reflects cooling demand for consumer goods now the boost from fiscal stimulus is fading and demand is... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 559,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May was at least an improvement on the 278,000 gain in April but, with the level of employment still 7.6 million below its pre-pandemic peak, it would take... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) While the headline ISM manufacturing index edged up to 61.2 in May, from 60.7, the main takeaway from the release was that shortages of workers, and not just raw materials, now appear to be playing a... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 1.3% m/m decline in durable goods orders in April partly reflected the impact of semiconductor shortages in the automobile sector, with motor vehicle orders falling by 6.2% m/m last month... 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Manufacturing output increased by a modest 0.4% m/m in April but was held back by a 4.3% m/m drop back in motor vehicle production, as the global shortage of semiconductors really began to bite... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The unchanged reading for retail sales in April is slightly stronger than it looks given that it follows an upwardly revised 10.7% m/m surge in March, and it suggests that the boost from the $1,400... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.9% surge in core prices last month, the biggest monthly gain since April 1982, was concentrated in sectors that are reopening and/or facing intense supply shortages, which should eventually ease... 12th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The more muted 266,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is a clear disappointment but, with much of the high-frequency data – including jobless claims – still improving rapidly, we doubt it... 7th May 2021 · 3 mins read
