UK Economics MPC not ready to use negative rates…and may not need to Our forecasts that the Bank of England would not be able to use negative interest until the middle of the year and wouldn’t be willing to speed up the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) proved to be... 4th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Plunging population would threaten extent of GDP recovery The possible sharp fall in the population since the start of the pandemic may explain up to 1.8 percentage points of the underperformance of the UK economy last year relative to its peers and, more... 21st January 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Risk of double-dip rising, Bank of England to do more It may only be a matter of time before the UK follows its European neighbours into a de facto national lockdown. As a result, there are big downside risks to our already downbeat forecast that GDP won... 30th October 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Aug.) While the resurgence in the housing market continued in August, consumer credit barely rose. And the darkening clouds on the economic horizon may tempt some households to start to rein in spending in... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Investment still in lockdown, negative rates back in vogue UK consumers have embraced their renewed ability to spend over the last few months but business investment is still on lockdown as uncertainty about the economic recovery, Brexit and future lockdowns... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Aug.) The further rise in retail sales in August was particularly encouraging as we know non-retail spending picked up at the same time, suggesting that consumer spending has rebounded strongly. 18th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Strength of initial rebound won’t prevent more QE As the Bank of England already has a QE programme in place and financial markets have remained calm, it was no surprise that the MPC voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged in September. But we... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in CPI inflation in August probably represents the low point for inflation. But a sustained rise to 2.0% seems unlikely within the next few years. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Curbing our optimism on UK equities We don’t think that the recent underperformance of UK equities will continue. But we no longer expect them to make up the ground that they have lost to their peers since the virus hit. 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Housing mini-boom will temporarily boost consumer spending The recent rebound in housing transactions and jump in house prices will boost consumption over the coming months, but the boost will only be temporary. Once the stamp duty holiday expires at the end... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will the MPC walk the walk in November? Markets appear to have taken heed of the MPC’s warning this week that interest rates could rise soon. Admittedly, the MPC has talked the talk before and failed to deliver. But this time, there are a... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
