UK Economics Things are looking up, but few signs inflation will roar into life soon While the risk of an interruption to the UK’s COVID-19 vaccine supplies rose this week, the latest news on economic activity has been positive. We suspect the pandemic will lead to more inflation... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Feb.) The fairly modest rise in retail sales volumes in February affirmed that the third COVID-19 lockdown has been tough for retailers, keeping sales suppressed following the plunge in January. But that... 26th March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The rise in the IHS Markit/CIPS composite activity PMI in March suggests that the economy has started to pick up. And once the COVID-19 shackles start to be released next month, activity will probably... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Feb.) The drag on CPI inflation in February from the COVID-19 lockdown will delay the rebound in inflation to 2.0% and perhaps prompt the markets to reconsider their view that interest rates will rise next... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The drop in the unemployment rate from 5.1% in December to 5.0% in January highlights once again the extent to which the government’s job furlough scheme has protected jobs during the pandemic. We... 23rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Gilt market ponders consequences of MPC inaction The continued low level of 2-year gilt yields suggests that the gilt market believes the Bank of England will keep interest rates at +0.10% for a long time yet. But the increase in gilt yields of... 19th March 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Expiry of policy support won’t knock the recovery off course Extensions to many emergency support measures in the Budget, combined with the lockdown easing roadmap, leaves us with a clearer steer on the impact of the eventual withdrawal of government support... 16th March 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Trade trauma is not all due to Brexit and will be temporary Brexit was not the only reason why exports and imports in January were so weak. COVID-19 and statistical breaks are also to blame. And it appears that a good chunk of these effects faded in February. 12th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jan.) The good news is that the 2.9% m/m fall in GDP during January’s COVID-19 lockdown will probably be the low point for the year. The bad news is that while the plunges in exports and imports weren’t... 12th March 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Which measure of government net debt is most useful? In last week’s Budget speech, the Chancellor referred to the lower “underlying” measure of government net debt rather than the higher “headline” measure. You’d be forgiven for thinking he did that... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Unemployment rate may peak at only 6.0% The rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, the reopening of schools and the staggered reopening of other sectors from mid-April should mean that the probable fall in GDP in January proves to be the low... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Budget 2021 – Filling the fiscal hole While most governments are focussed squarely on maintaining or increasing fiscal support for their economies, in today’s Budget the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, adopted a different two-staged plan for the... 3rd March 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Spring Budget 2021 Checklist We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Spring Budget 2021 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 3rd March and to provide some instant... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jan.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt was repeated in January. And we expect a continuation of these trends... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Lockdown exit plan to shed light on speed of the recovery The sharp fall in retail sales in January suggested that January’s lockdown hit the economy harder than November’s lockdown. But at least it doesn’t look like things deteriorated further in February... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
