UK Economics Money & Credit (Mar.) March’s money and credit data provides some signs that a consumer revival was underway even before the COVID-19 restrictions were eased in mid-April. But even if consumers’ willingness to borrow... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rate hikes still a long way off, despite stronger economy Given the better starting point and improving economic outlook, it would be a surprise if the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t come out with a stronger set of economic forecasts than it had in... 29th April 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics What is the MPC’s forward guidance telling us? When taken together, the Bank of England’s forward guidance and its economic forecasts imply that the Bank may not raise interest rates until late in 2023 at the earliest. That would be later than the... 27th April 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Does it matter if the BoE ends QE before the Fed and ECB? Our expectation that the Bank of England will end quantitative easing (QE) sooner than the US Fed and the ECB is unlikely to mean that UK government bond yields rise much further than elsewhere or... 26th April 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics UK would win the European GDP Super League If there were an economics version of the European football league, which started up and collapsed this week, where success depended on where GDP is at the end of 2022, then the UK may win with... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) The surge in April’s flash composite PMI suggests that the economy has begun to gather momentum. And this is probably a taste of things to come over the next few months as the shackles from the COVID... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s strong rise in retail sales showed that the economy made a fair bit of progress even before non-essential retailers reopened in April. And sales will probably leap further in April. 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Mar.) The further rise in public borrowing in March rounded out the worst year for the public finances since 1947. But borrowing was £24.3bn lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rebound in CPI inflation from 0.4% in February to 0.7% in March is the start of a rise to about 1.5% in the next few months and to above 2.0% by December. But as we doubt inflation will stick... 21st April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The slight fall in the unemployment rate in February suggests that the government’s job furlough scheme is still insulating the labour market from the worst effects of the pandemic. We still expect... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Bounce back in activity begins The early evidence supports our view that the reopening of non-essential retailers and outdoor drinking/dining venues last Monday marked the start of a rapid rebound in economic activity. 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Haldane’s MPC departure not as dovish as it first appears Amid the reopening of shops and pubs this week, it was the subtler news that the MPC’s arch-optimist Andy Haldane is leaving the MPC at the end of June that caused a reaction in the markets. At the... 16th April 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Feb.) Given there was no change in the lockdown restrictions in February, GDP was never going to shoot back up. But the small rise does suggest that January was probably the low point of the year. We think... 13th April 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Economy has a spring in its step It remains to be seen if this week’s news on the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine further slows the UK’s vaccination rollout. But as the government says it is still on track to vaccinate all adults by the... 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Quarterly National Accounts (Q4) The upward revision to GDP in the second half of 2020 means the economy does not have quite as far to recover from the COVID-19 crisis. And Q4’s high saving rate leaves plenty of scope for a rapid... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt continued in February. We doubt much changed in March, but this pattern... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
