UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small fall in the composite activity PMI in September indicates that the economy lost a little more momentum. But at the same time, there were clear signs that price pressures have continued to... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public finances figures provided further evidence that the government’s financial position isn’t as bad as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted back in March. But the rumours... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weak activity news likely to stave off rate hike On the back of the surge in inflation in August and the blistering increases in wholesale gas and electricity prices, investors and some economists have shifted their expectations of the first rate... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Aug.) The fourth consecutive fall in retail sales in August isn’t as bad as it looks as some of it reflects households spending more on non-retail items as life returns closer to normal. But as non-retail... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Slowing recovery eases pressure to hike The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled in August that it is getting closer to raising interest rates, but the gloomy tone of the recent news on the global and UK economies will have reduced the... 16th September 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics The rise in consumer prices is not widespread A deeper dive into the CPI figures supports our initial analysis that the bulk of the jump in inflation from 2.0% in July to 3.2% in August is due to base effects linked to falling consumer prices in... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Aug.) The leap in CPI inflation from 2.0% in July to a nine-year high of 3.2% in August (consensus 2.9%, CE 3.1%) is the first step in a rise that may take inflation to 4.5% or above by November. But as... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) The latest data brought more signs that labour market slack is declining fast and that labour shortages are contributing to faster underlying pay growth. We suspect that beyond the next 6-12 months... 14th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Economic recovery enters a more challenging phase The economy is entering a more challenging phase of its recovery from the pandemic as it is having to deal with another rise in COVID-19 cases and both product and labour shortages. We think the... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The rise in COVID-19 cases and the product/labour shortages are probably behind the stalling in the UK’s economic recovery in July. With next week’s CPI release set to reveal a jump in inflation from... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Government leaves itself with some fiscal ammo to utilise later The net effect of today’s announcements on social care reform may provide a very small boost to GDP. But perhaps more important is that by funding more spending on social care by raising taxes, the... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics HGV labour shortages won’t drive interest rates up next year Reports that shortages of heavy good vehicles (HGV) drivers have become more acute and have raised drivers’ pay will do little to ease fears that higher wage growth could persistently lift CPI... 3rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jul.) The latest money and credit figures do little to ease mounting concerns that the resurgence in virus cases in July and so-called “pingdemic” brought the consumer recovery to a halt. 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Inflation expectations – what to watch The inflation expectations of households, businesses and the financial markets will probably rise in the coming months as actual CPI inflation jumps to over 4.0% later this year. But as the rises are... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jul.) While there was good news on public borrowing, the slump in retail sales added to other evidence indicating that in July the economic recovery slowed to a crawl. 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
