UK Markets Chart Pack Global forces drag down gilt yields We doubt that the downward pressure on UK gilt yields from the weaker global economy will fade over the next year. In the near term, the 10-year gilt yield may therefore fall below its current two... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack The stock market slump is not over In spite of the recovery that has taken hold since the turn of the year, we think that equities have further to fall. It is well known that UK stock indices are heavily weighted towards energy... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC won’t wait long if no deal avoided The latest labour market data suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee could quickly turn hawkish if a no deal Brexit is avoided. In its November Inflation Report, the Bank of England forecast... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook The hawkish tone of the Bank of England’s “Super Thursday” announcements have helped to push up interest rate expectations a little and have fuelled a rise in sterling over the past week. But we doubt... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sustained recovery in sterling unlikely until next year Sterling recovered some lost ground in September. But we still think that it will drop back over the rest of 2018. Indeed, it seems highly unlikely that a Brexit deal will be agreed (and ratified by... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Risk of “no deal” weighs on the pound The pound has fallen by almost 10% against the US dollar over the past four months, leaving it at $1.29. Much of this reflects broad-based dollar strength – the pound has slipped by much less against... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC set to embark on tightening cycle The collective view of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in June was that “an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period” would be necessary if the economy evolves in line with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC hints that it will press ahead in August The Bank of England Chief Economist, Andy Haldane’s, surprise vote for an interest rate increase in June, alongside a hawkish set of minutes, suggests that the MPC will press ahead with a rate hike in... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Any pause before rates rise again will be short Governor Carney’s comment that the MPC will decide whether or not to increase Bank Rate in May "conscious that there are other meetings over the course of this year" suggests that he wants to hold off... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sell-off in gilts abates The sell-off in gilts, which saw the 10-year yield rise from 1.2% at the end of 2017 to a peak of close to 1.7% by mid-February has abated. The benchmark yield is now back around 1.5%. Indeed, the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Chance of another interest rate hike in May growing The increase in markets’ expectations for official interest rates that occurred in the build-up to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) February Inflation Report proved justified. The MPC revised... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Will UK equities continue to climb? UK equity prices have risen substantially over the past month alongside those in other developed markets, with the FTSE 100 up by around 3%, to 7,700 points. What’s more, this gain in the FTSE has not... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook Unsurprisingly December’s uneventful Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting barely caused a ripple in financial markets, leaving market participants’ expectations for future interest rates all but... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets confident in November rate hike More than ten years on from the last increase in Bank Rate, investors expect a move from 0.25% to 0.50% at the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting on the 2nd November. Indeed, the data have been... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets right to believe MPC’s rate hike warning We have long argued that investors have been too sanguine about the prospect of a hike in Bank Rate in the near term. But the hawkish tone of the minutes of the MPC’s September meeting surprised even... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Fall in inflation dampens rate hike expectations The release of weaker-than-expected inflation data for June has seen the chances of an imminent rate hike diminish. Nonetheless, investors still see it as a distinct possibility before the end of the... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
