UK Markets Chart Pack Pricing in higher inflation and interest rates The jump in 10-year gilt yields from 0.29% at the end of January to 0.76% now has been driven by the markets pricing in a rise in inflation after the pandemic that they think will eventually prompt... 24th March 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Inflation expectations unlikely to lift gilt yields much 10-year gilt yields haven’t been significantly dragged higher by 10-year US Treasury yields because, unlike their US counterparts, break-even inflation rates in the UK have not been boosted by... 27th January 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling’s swings leave more downside than upside The recent swings in sterling triggered by shifts in sentiment towards the chances of a Brexit deal have left little room for the pound to appreciate if there’s a deal, but plenty of room for it to... 16th December 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Second lockdown fears weigh on equities The growing risk of a second national UK lockdown has spooked equity markets over the last week. We already expect the recovery to stall in Q4 and additional COVID-19 restrictions could easily throw... 22nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack COVID and Brexit risks rising The concerns about the consequences for the economy from a second wave of COVID-19 and a no deal Brexit, which have reduced the FTSE 100 almost back to April’s level and weakened the pound from $1.35... 23rd September 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Loose monetary policy to anchor gilt yields for years Despite the Bank of England having slowed the pace of its gilt purchases to below that of gilt issuance (see Chart 1), our forecasts that it will expand the size of its quantitative easing programme... 22nd July 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Return of risk appetite to buoy assets if virus contained Market conditions have generally improved in recent months, with government bond yields remaining low, corporate bond spreads almost back to their pre-coronavirus levels and the FTSE 100 recovering... 25th June 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Market functioning restored, but risks remain Strains in the financial markets have generally eased due to policymakers’ decisive action and equity markets have rebounded on hopes that the spread of the coronavirus is slowing. Of course, asset... 21st April 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling big casualty of financial market disarray 18th March 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack To cut, or not to cut, that is the question The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on whether to cut rates in January rests on a knife edge and could go either way. The MPC must weigh up the weakness of the economy and low inflation in Q4... 16th January 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities to make up lost ground The post-election jump in UK equities could just be the start of a sustained rally. Concerns Brexit and higher taxes under a Labour government mean that UK equity indices have underperformed over the... 17th December 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Further upside for sterling if Brexit deal is approved If Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is approved in Parliament soon, we expect the pound would rise from $1.29 now to about $1.35 and 10-year gilt yields would increase from 0.72% to around 0.90% by the end... 22nd October 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling bumping into Brexit ceiling Equity markets have recovered much of their losses in recent weeks and, after hitting multi-year lows at the start of September, sterling and bond yields have also rebounded. (See Chart 1.) This is... 23rd September 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Lingering downside risk to sterling With the pound having recently weakened to a two-year low of $1.24 and the markets seemingly no longer pricing in the possibility of official interest rate hikes if there’s a Brexit deal or delay... 24th July 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors do a u-turn on rate hikes Investors have reassessed the outlook for UK monetary policy over the last month and have gone from expecting rate hikes at the start of May to expecting cuts now. This is partly because of a... 26th June 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Brexit delay contributes to looser financial conditions The marginal loosening in overall financial conditions since the second delay to Brexit until 31st October and the recent reduction in fears about the outlook for the global economy suggest that the... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
