UK Commercial Property Update Notes from our residential investment roundtables At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. Across the... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is renting becoming the preserve of the rich? High net migration has led to a big jump in demand for rental properties that has pushed up the cost of rent compared to the average salary. But comparing rents to average pay is not as accurate a... 13th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (April 2024) Increasing supply points to softer price growth While sales volumes were robust in April according to the RICS Residential Market Survey, stalling demand and increasing supply suggests that prices... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Multifamily rents set to outperform New more granular MSCI data shows that the outperformance of residential property over the past decade was primarily down to student housing. Indeed, only in the past couple of years have multifamily... 22nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2024) Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar. 24) Cautious optimism from surveyors on prices and activity The slight increase in the balances for past prices and new buyer enquiries in the RICS Residential Market Survey for March showed that demand... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How much should we read into the collapse in starts? The further slump in housing starts in Q4 was a surprise, but timelier data and leading indicators suggest activity has since begun to recover. We are therefore happy with our forecast of a gradual... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 24) The February RICS Residential Market Survey revealed a jump in the supply of homes for sale which, paired with a slight rise in mortgage rates, means that house price gains are likely to stall in the... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental market continues to contract The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The origin of the government’s 300,000 target We have traced the government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year in England back to the 2004 Barker Review. Rerunning the calculations two decades on suggests 385,000 new homes a year would... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024. 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Later rate cuts are the biggest risk to the recovery Current fixed mortgage rates of around 4.6% are based on investors’ forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year. We think that rates will be reduced a bit faster... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan. 24) The strongest set of survey results since the tail end of the 2020-22 house price boom provided further evidence that lower mortgage rates have led to a recovery in demand. We suspect that respondents... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing Given the rise in rents and the recent decline in mortgage rates, the financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing. This will boost buyer demand and cause tenant demand to soften this year. 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
