UK Housing Market Outlook Little prospect of a housing market recovery in 2013 While house prices held up better than we expected towards the end of last year, the market’s underlying fundamentals remain unfavourable. Therefore, we have not made major adjustments to our housing... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Too soon to look for a housing market recovery Over the past few months, developments in the wider economy and the housing market have been broadly in line with our forecasts. Therefore, we have not made major adjustments to either our economic or... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Economic weakness will undermine house prices The past quarter brought no evidence of a stronger economic recovery, an easing in credit conditions or any resolution to the euro-zone crisis. Therefore, with households cautious, housing market... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Another difficult year for the housing market Falling economic output, rising unemployment and fragile consumer confidence will all do their bit to undermine house prices this year. But while housing is still overvalued, low interest rates and... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Downside risks dominate the 2012 outlook House prices remain overvalued on most measures. This suggests that there is ample scope for tighter mortgage credit conditions and rising unemployment to push average house prices lower during 2012... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook A weak labour market will keep the housing market depressed House prices are likely to end 2011 in line with, or marginally lower than, last year. That will do little to alleviate the extent to which housing is overvalued. Against this backdrop, and with the... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook No relief in sight for the housing market Our views on valuation, as well as our expectations that the economy and housing market activity levels will remain weak, mean that we anticipate further falls in house prices. But the fact that... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook A longer, slower adjustment seems in store We have not changed our view that the housing market is overvalued. But recent developments in the housing and macroeconomic data point to a slower, more drawnout correction than we were previously... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Weak transactions and falling house prices will be the story of 2011 We have raised our forecast of GDP growth for 2011 from 1% to 1.5%, but overall the economy will lose momentum and the labour market will weaken. Thus, the implications for the housing market are... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook The lack of mortgage credit will weigh on house prices in 2011 (Q4 2010) The combination of a fading economic recovery, renewed rises in unemployment and a continued shortage of mortgage credit all suggest that there is little prospect of a meaningful recovery in housing... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Low interest rates will not prevent a further drop in house prices (Q3 2010) Since the previous Analyst our forecasts for housing transactions have been shaved, reflecting the weaker-than-expected data in recent months. However, our house price forecasts appear to be on track... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook The house price recovery will soon go into reverse (Q2 2010) The risks that house price falls would take longer to materialise than we had been expecting, and which we flagged in the previous Analyst, have been borne out. We have therefore cut our forecast for... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook A second leg to the house price correction still lies ahead (Q1 2010) Our forecast that house prices will drop by 10% this year is unchanged. But, in view of the market’s surprising recovery last year, there is clearly risk that the current upward momentum in house... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price falls to resume in 2010 (Q4 2009) This year’s rise in house prices, driven by an acute shortage of property for sale, does not look sustainable. We still think that prices will fall by between 35% and 40% from their peak. 16th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price declines will slow, but the correction will drag on for longer (Q3 2009) House price falls are slowing and the economic outlook no longer looks as gloomy as it did at the turn of the year. Yet, while the housing market correction may proceed more slowly than we envisaged... 16th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook No floor in sight for house prices (Q2 2009) There are tentative signs that activity levels in the housing market are bottoming out. Any recovery in activity is, however, unlikely to be sufficiently strong to prevent further house price falls... 20th April 2009 · 1 min read
