UK Housing Market Outlook Near-term pain, medium-term gain Rising unemployment and the withdrawal of the raft of policies that supported the housing market in 2020 means that the pandemic will finally take its toll this year. The end of the stamp duty holiday... 27th January 2021 · 23 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market surge to be short-lived The post-lockdown recovery in house price growth and housing market activity has exceeded expectations. But the economy will act as a drag on the housing market in the coming months, while pent-up... 27th October 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market tail risks recede Lockdown slammed the brakes on activity and house price growth, but policy interventions have cushioned the blow for housing. As a result, our initial fears of a house price collapse have waned. That... 23rd July 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market faces serious downsides The housing market will take a deep hit from the coronavirus. We expect housing transactions and housebuilding to drop by 70% in Q2 this year, as physical distancing measures halt activity. Meanwhile... 28th April 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Weak fundamentals keep lid on housing activity While the decisive election result could lead to a modest increase in housing demand over the next couple of years, we doubt that this will translate into a substantive pick-up in transactions or... 23rd January 2020 · 28 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Limited scope for housing market recovery Regardless of what happens with Brexit in the months ahead, a revival in the owner occupier housing market is unlikely. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, we expect to see only a small improvement... 24th October 2019 · 29 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Limited housing market recovery next year Regardless of the Brexit outcome, we don’t expect a rebound in either house prices or transactions in 2019. Rather, there is hope of a modest improvement in housing market activity in both 2020 and... 22nd July 2019 · 30 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing outlook soft out to 2021 With Brexit delayed, a recovery in transactions and house prices is unlikely this year. But even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed by October, high house prices and rising interest rates will leave... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Uncertainty reinforces soft housing outlook Rising Brexit uncertainty only reinforces our weak outlook for the housing market. In our most likely scenario, we think transactions will dip this year before edging back up in 2020, all while house... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market adjustment has further to run The stagnation in the housing market is set to continue for the foreseeable future, as the combination of high house prices and rising mortgage rates, which are set to exceed 3% by 2020, hold the... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Outlook subdued to 2020 Mortgage rates are set to exceed 3% by the end of our forecast. With house prices very high, that will keep house price inflation below 2% out to 2020. This means that the house price to income ratio... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Three more years of housing market malaise With interest rates continuing to normalise, mortgage rates will reach 3.6% by 2020. Combined with the fact that prices are already very high, that will offset the effect of accelerating wage growth... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Rising rates set to keep market in check Our forecast for an improving economic backdrop will come hand-in-hand with rising interest rates. As a result, improving real wages and sentiment will be countered by higher mortgage costs. That will... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Rate rises will extend the soft patch The current softness in housing market activity is a sign that house prices have reached the limit of what current incomes and credit conditions can sustain. Given our forecasts for the economy and... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market outlook is subdued The economy appears to have regained some momentum in the second quarter. By contrast, the housing market has cooled. And with high house prices increasingly choking off demand and no scope for looser... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Stuck in a rut The economic backdrop continues to look favourable, which will help to support buyer demand in the coming years. But with houses already so expensive, prices will need to rise slower than incomes if... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
