Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Big tax rises, but economy may end up stronger This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2024 Preview In her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, faces the unenviable task of trying to achieve three objectives. First, being able to say there will be “no return to... 16th October 2024 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Focus The post-election UK economic landscape The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain... 12th September 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Residential will continue to outperform Residential has taken an increasing share of the professional investment universe over the last decade or more and we will be adding the sector to our next set of UK commercial property forecasts. Our... 11th April 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus What will be the damage from 6% mortgage rates? A return to mortgage rates of around 6% for the first time since 2007 guarantees a renewed slump in mortgage lending and a further leg down in house prices. Were mortgage rates to be sustained at that... 20th June 2023 · 15 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus The impact of the end of Help to Buy on home ownership The Help to Buy: Equity Loan scheme was designed to counter an alarming drop in housebuilding and home ownership among young adults. It succeeded to some extent on both fronts, so the loss of the... 22nd March 2023 · 21 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Rents to grow at twice their 2010s rate this decade Although less widely reported than the house price boom, rents have been setting records too. The 11% y/y rise in the Zoopla rents index in Q1 was the fastest since the series began in 2006. That... 26th July 2022 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Focus Property the weak link as interest rates rise We think that property markets are the weak link when it comes to the impact of tightening monetary policy. A modest rise in interest rates might only cause price falls in a few obvious candidates... 25th March 2022 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus How pandemic changes will affect European cities Europeans are returning to cities, though the return to offices has been much slower and this has had negative effects on city retail. Looking ahead, weaker demand for office and retail will weigh on... 2nd November 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Have house prices surged to an unsustainable level? The surge in house prices and very high transaction volumes have led to concerns that the housing market is entering a bubble. After all, the house-price-to-earnings ratio has risen to a fresh all... 22nd April 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus House prices set to dip in 2021 The negative economic impacts of COVID-19 have bypassed the housing market so far due to the extraordinary support measures put in place by the government, regulators, and banks. But while policy has... 27th November 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
