UK Economics Weekly OECD wide of the mark on interest rates Our initial response to the OECD’s recommendation that UK interest rates should rise to 3.5% by the end of next year (“completely mad”) may have been a bit extreme. Nonetheless, it seems to neglect... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC right to be sanguine on inflation, for now Last week’s letter from Mervyn King to the new Chancellor George Osborne after inflation surprised on the upside again drew accusations that the Governor is being dangerously sanguine on the inflation... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling caught in the middle Co-ordination between fiscal and monetary policy already appears to have stepped up a gear since the new Government took office, with Bank of England Governor Mervyn King endorsing the Government’s... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Election needn’t put the UK in the Greek camp The fact that a hung parliament was widely expected helped to dampen the impact on markets. But the key question now is whether the election result will prompt markets to start to put the UK in the... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parties leave us none the wiser on spending cuts The Government is going into the election against a fairly favourable backdrop of an expanding economy, a falling claimant count and rising house prices. So it may be disappointed that this economic... 3rd May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don’t be fooled by the better fiscal news Last week’s public finances figures for March, revealing a £3bn undershoot of the Chancellor’s forecast for public borrowing in 2009-10, may have raised hopes that the beneficial effects on the public... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has the trade boost arrived? Last week’s trade figures could signal that the external sector is finally set to provide the economy with a decent amount of support. But we would be cautious about reading too much into the... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Industry can’t drive a strong recovery Having been largely overlooked as a sector in inexorable decline for the last decade or more, attention has recently re-focused on industry as a potential source of growth to offset the likely... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economic data give Government pre-election boost With just over a month to the expected date of the general election, the recent economic data - while not spectacular - have probably come as a bit of a relief for the Government. Last week’s further... 5th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Mr Darling leaves lots of holes Mr Darling’s Budget may have provided £100m to repair potholes in the roads, but it left plenty of gaping holes in the fiscal arithmetic. Most obviously, the projected fall in the budget deficit... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Darling spend or save? February’s better-than-expected public finances figures suggest that Alistair Darling could have between £5bn and £10bn at his disposal in Wednesday’s Budget. But will he spend it on preelection tax... 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Lower pound still not helping much Last week’s trade figures probably won the prize for most disappointing economic data so far this year. Although the snow may have been partly to blame, there has been a deteriorating trend in the... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the housing recovery faltering? Last week brought further tentative indications that the recovery in the housing market might be losing a little steam. Both the Halifax and Nationwide recorded falls in house prices in February while... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More clear signals from the MPC Comments from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) dominated events last week, with the key message being that a further extension of quantitative easing (QE) could soon be on the cards. Of course, we... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A week to forget! Last week was clearly one to forget in terms of news on the UK economy. Inflation rose to a 14 month high, unemployment resumed its upward trend, bank lending weakened, retail spending collapsed and... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC retains faith in spare capacity to reduce inflation Last week’s Inflation Report was always likely to show a downward revision to the MPC’s growth forecasts and it duly delivered. But less certain was whether the recent rise in inflation would have... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
