UK Economics Weekly Labour market slack will help inflation to fall Last week’s consumer prices figures showing headline inflation holding steady at 3.1% fuelled doubts in some quarters over the MPC’s long held view that spare capacity in the economy will have a... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Early signs of weakness in Q3 Last week brought the first ‘hard’ data relating to the third quarter. Its overall message seems to be that, while growth has not fallen ‘off a cliff,’ it has probably slowed sharply since the rapid... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Double-dip dangers deepen Last week didn’t look likely to be a particularly memorable one as far as domestic news is concerned. But it’s just possible that it will turn out to be the week when the threat of a renewed recession... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the latest housing downturn just another blip? After a weak start to the year, the subsequent modest improvement in the housing market has recently begun to peter out. It may be that this is nothing to worry about, especially given that the wider... 30th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilts right to be sanguine on inflation Our long-standing bullishness on UK government bonds (or gilts) was further borne out last week when ten year yields slipped through our target of 3%. Gilts have been supported by overseas... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC turning a blind eye to inflation? The distinctly dovish tone of last week’s August Inflation Report begs the question of whether the Monetary Policy Committee is damaging the credibility of the policy framework by deliberately turning... 16th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Slow progress on bank lending The interim results published by the major UK banks last week showed that RBS and Lloyds are on track to meet their new lending commitments to the Government. But these lending targets have become... 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much longer can retail spending hold up? You could be forgiven for being puzzled by the recent data on consumers. After all, figures released last week on retail spending and the housing market gave markedly different signals on the current... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stress tests won’t transform outlook While the UK banks look likely to receive a relatively clean bill of health in the stress tests, tha is unlikely to have much of an impact on the outlook for the economy. After all, while recent weeks... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Pick-up in services inflation shouldn’t last Last week’s rise in core inflation suggested that the spare capacity in the economy still isn’t having much of an impact. Core goods inflation is now on a downward trend – but is being offset by a... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly As good as it gets? Data released last week supported the view that, while the economy probably grew at a solid pace in the second quarter, that may be as good as it gets as far as the pace of the UK economic recovery is... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OBR too optimistic on jobs Already we’re starting to get a feel for just how nasty the effects of the looming cuts in government spending will be. The OBR last week revealed that it expects over 600,000 public sector job cuts... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal worries eased, but not eliminated Last week’s tougher than expected Budget has helped to ease market concerns about the UK’s fiscal outlook, but it won’t eliminate them altogether. For a start, the vast bulk of the planned fiscal... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Budget squeeze will hurt Last week’s interim forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) sprung something of a surprise in revealing a lower projected path for public borrowing over the next five years than that... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OBR’s forecasts to underline need for a tough Budget This week’s pronouncements by the newly created Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) could set a gloomy backdrop for the emergency Budget due in just over a week’s time. For a start, the OBR is... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery remains fitful Cracks already seem to be appearing in the recovery on the services side of the economy. Admittedly, overall GDP growth in the second quarter could still prove to be fairly reasonable, in part due to... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
