UK Economics Weekly Optimism about the recovery could prove premature The mood improved considerably after last week’s CIPS/Markit surveys which seemed to suggest that the recovery is back on track again. But, the big picture is that the underlying trend in both the... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Government needs a back-up plan Following last week’s news of a surprise drop in GDP at the end of last year, the wisdom of the Government’s austerity plans has once again been called into question. Accordingly, the coalition would... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling threat will help to keep rates low Much of the pound’s recent strength appears to have reflected the rise in inflation in the UK and the growing expectation that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will soon be forced to raise official... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK not alone in seeing inflation fears rise Last week’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates on hold again will have done nothing to ease concerns that the Committee is allowing a serious inflation problem to... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has the recovery really ground to a halt? Last week’s CIPS/Markit activity surveys seemed to suggest that the economic recovery ground to a complete halt in December. But there are several reasons to think that the recovery is in better shape... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don't write off the high street yet We had been expecting the year to end on something of a high note for the high street, but obviously the snow has dampened these hopes somewhat. That said, people who have spent less than they... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC's credibility really in danger? Last week’s November CPI figures showing inflation rising again to 3.3% has prompted further concerns that the Monetary Policy Committee is in danger of losing its anti-inflation credibility. A year... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Industrial recovery won't save the economy Last week’s economic data releases brought further encouraging signs that that the long-awaited re-balancing of the UK economy away from consumers and the public sector towards industry and exports is... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly An early Christmas present for Mr. Osborne Christmas appeared to come early for the Chancellor last week. On Monday, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its revised economic forecasts, and, broadly speaking, endorsed the... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone crisis threatens UK export prospects Last week’s bailout for Ireland did little to ease concerns about the troubled euro-zone periphery. At least the UK banking sector’s exposure to the so-called “PIIGS” – Portugal, Ireland, Italy... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilts' inflation jitters will ease in time The UK gilt market appears to have suffered from a serious bout of the inflation jitters over recent weeks. Sharp rises in global commodity prices and the continued stubbornness of consumer price... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Renewed rise in inflation needn't rule out QE2 Some of the reaction to last week’s Bank of England Inflation Report - including the 10bps or so rise in bond yields - seemed a bit over the top to us. After all, the MPC’s growth and longer-term... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC will follow the Fed before long The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision not to follow the US Federal Reserve in embarking on a new bout of quantitative easing (QE) last week was justified by the recent news on the UK economy. But... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery unlikely to maintain recent pace Last week’s news that GDP is estimated to have risen by 0.8% q/q in Q3 suggested that the recovery is ticking along quite nicely. But we would not go as far as some have done in concluding that the... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Spending Review has not lessened the fiscal pain Last week’s long awaited Spending Review appeared to include a moderate watering down of the planned cuts in public expenditure over the next four years. Nonetheless, an extremely onerous fiscal... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Spending Review to deepen the gloom This week’s long-awaited Spending Review will do little to alter the macro-economic landscape. We already know the overall spending plans for the next five years and, while some changes to the totals... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
