UK Economics Weekly Real wages to provide timely support to the recovery Last week saw global financial markets return to panic mode, as concerns about the faltering euro-zone economy, heightened geopolitical risks, the spread of the Ebola virus and falling oil prices came... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the FTSE’s fall signalling a slowdown? On the face of it, the sharp decline in the FTSE 100 to its lowest level since last October appears to be a bad portent regarding the sustainability of the UK economy’s recovery. However, the FTSE’s... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? The sharp decline in the manufacturing PMI and smaller fall in the services PMI in September has led some to question the durability of the UK’s economic recovery. There is little reason to be worried... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Take fiscal pledges with a pinch of salt With the party conference season in full swing, attention has turned from the Scottish referendum to the main parties’ plans for fiscal policy in the next parliament. But while their new pledges may... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Post-referendum relief rally falls flat The absence of a major relief rally following Scotland’s rejection of independence confirms that the markets only ever placed a very small probability on a ‘Yes’ vote. Although interest rate... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will sterling take the low road? While the recent fall in the pound against the US dollar has been put down to the heighteneduncertainty over the Scottish referendum result, most of the drop has actually been driven by a shiftin... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP overhaul merely tweaks the big picture Last week’s revised GDP estimates were seemingly all things to all men, supporting political parties’ views and every economist’s forecasts for interest rates and fiscal policy. In reality, the new... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK better placed to weather another euro-zone storm With euro-zone activity indicators having softened over recent months, it looks as if the currency bloc’s nascent recovery is already losing steam. Without bolder policy action from the ECB, the risks... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the rebels muster a majority soon? Past experience suggests that the emergence of a minority vote to raise interest rates at August’s MPC meeting is unlikely to have brought the first rate hike any closer. For a start, minority votes... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deciphering the pay puzzle Last week’s Inflation Report saw the MPC place more emphasis on earnings at a time whenindicators are giving radically different signals regarding its current – let alone likely future –strength... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Weaker pound not a panacea for rebalancing In its latest assessment of the UK economy, the IMF last week concluded that sterling was“moderately” overvalued and that its strength may be holding back the economy’s rebalancing.But we doubt that a... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is a fiscal crisis quietly brewing? On the face of it, last week’s fiscal figures suggested that the public finances are still not benefitingfrom the recovery’s strength. Indeed, if the trend in the first three months of this fiscal... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the worst over for pay? Last week’s labour market data was something of a curate’s egg. Although a further fall in theunemployment rate indicated that the jobs recovery has continued at a rapid pace, the earningsfigures... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the stronger pound stay the MPC’s hand? Sterling’s further appreciation has increased the chances that CPI inflation drops even further below the MPC’s 2% target over the next year or so. Not only will sterling’s rise have a direct impact... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the construction recovery continue to build? Given its small weight in overall output, the construction sector is often overlooked. But last week’s survey data provided encouraging evidence that the sector is helping to build a more balanced... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has the FPC done enough? None of the measures announced by the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) last week seem likely to sap the recovery in house prices of its current momentum or prevent the overall level of household debt... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
