UK Economics Weekly Tightening job market should see off deflation threat The latest inflation figures, showing CPI inflation easing to a record low of 0.3% in January, naturally took up most of the column inches last week. It was therefore easy to overlook the latest... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cut in Bank Rate returns to policy toolkit With CPI inflation on the verge of turning negative, last week’s Inflation Report saw Bank of England Governor Mark Carney discuss his available policy options should deflation show signs of becoming... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Carney faces balancing act with Inflation Report Deflation will be the word on everyone’s lips at this week’s Inflation Report press conference. Mr Carney will need to emphasise that the Committee is alert to the risk that deflation becomes... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing market to revive just in time for the election While last week’s GDP figures confirmed that the recovery lost momentum at the tail end of 2014, we expect it to regain pace soon. One helpful development in that respect should be an end to the mini... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone QE largely positive for UK Anything that kick-starts the UK’s biggest trading partner clearly has the potential to be good news this side of the Channel too. That said, the main channel through which we think QE will work in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deflation should be briefer in the UK than overseas With E.On’s cut in gas prices probably kicking off a more widespread round of utility price cuts and oil prices falling even further last week, a brief dip into outright deflation now seems more... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the UK experience deflation too? The halving of the oil price since the summer has already tipped the euro-zone into deflation and looks set to turn the headline inflation rate in the US and Japan negative shortly too. We still think... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2015: Another year of strength? Last week’s data releases provided more encouragement that the economic recovery has a fair amount of momentum at the end of 2014. Indeed, barring any last-minute shocks, the UK economy appears to... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stress tests unlikely to prevent lending revival in 2015 The Bank of England will publish the results of its latest stress test of UK banks this week. While we would not like to wager that all eight banks will pass this year’s tough assessment, the lifting... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Four fiscal fragilities could emerge in time While the Autumn Statement once again saw the Chancellor make the most of a poor hand, we remain concerned that many of his fiscal gambles are unlikely to fully pay off. To our minds, the assumptions... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What does the Chancellor have up his sleeve? While the rumour mill has been fairly silent, the Chancellor is surely piecing together a small package of measures for his Autumn Statement to provide a pre-election boost to households’ finances. A... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Could good deflation turn bad? Recent outright falls in commodity, import, producer and retail prices should provide a timely fillip to households and firms. However, with CPI inflation already well below target and set to fall to... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are the MPC’s new forecasts plausible? There have been suggestions in some quarters that the MPC’s new forecasts for strong growth, low unemployment and below-target inflation push the envelope of plausibility. However, the MPC is... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report set to reaffirm low rate outlook This week’s Inflation Report should confirm that the majority view on the Monetary Policy Committee remains that the economy is still some months away from justifying higher interest rates. Indeed... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cooling housing market won’t freeze the recovery Given the perceived boost to the economic recovery from strong gains in house prices over the past year or so, signs that the housing market is beginning to cool may raise concerns that the overall... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Consumers to remain upbeat despite asset price falls On the face of it, the recent sharp fall in equity prices and slowdown in the housing market suggest that the significant improvement in consumer confidence seen over the last year might be reversed... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
