UK Economics Weekly Risk of a "cooperative" no deal Brexit rises The next Brexit decision “deadline” on Sunday 13 th December, may or may not be the turning point that results in the UK and EU hurtling either towards a deal or a no deal. But with the Brexit... 11th December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brightening outlook reduces the need for tax hikes 27th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brightening outlook reduces the need for tax hikes With the positive news on COVID-19 vaccines brightening the economic outlook, we now think that by the middle of the decade the economy won’t be much smaller than if the COVID-19 crisis had never... 27th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Outlook brightening, but risk politicians mess it up COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook beyond the next few months. But there is risk that politicians will darken it again if they allow what we’re calling an “uncooperative” no deal... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Outlook brightening, but risk politicians mess it up COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook beyond the next few months. But there is risk that politicians will darken it again if they allow what we’re calling an “uncooperative” no deal... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Vaccine may allow the UK to close the gap on its peers 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Vaccine may allow the UK to close the gap on its peers The UK is one of the economies that stands to benefit the most from COVID-19 vaccines. As it has suffered by more than its peers on the way down, there is more scope for its bounce to be bigger on the... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Lockdown déjà vu The second lockdown will probably reduce the level of GDP in November by about 8.0% m/m. That would mean GDP in November would be about 15.5% below February’s level and might not regain its pre-crisis... 6th November 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Risk of double-dip rising, Bank of England to do more It may only be a matter of time before the UK follows its European neighbours into a de facto national lockdown. As a result, there are big downside risks to our already downbeat forecast that GDP won... 30th October 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly How far will employment have to fall to meet GDP? The end of the national furlough scheme on 31 st October sets the stage for a sharp fall in employment. That’s why the Chancellor had to increase the generosity of the replacement Job Support Scheme... 23rd October 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pressure mounting on the Chancellor and BoE to do more With COVID-19 infections surging and the government turning to much broader and tighter restrictions, we fear that the economic recovery will soon go into reverse. That’s why we think the Chancellor... 16th October 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Calling time on the recovery The slowing of the economic recovery even before the effects of the impending local lockdowns have been felt means that the economy will take even longer than we previously thought to get back to its... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deal or no deal gulf narrows UK-EU relations deteriorated on one front this week, with the EU starting legal proceedings over the UK’s plans to undermine parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, but improved on another as negotiations... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
