UK Economics Update Unemployment unlikely to peak until 2011 The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment unlikely to peak until 2011 The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.). The latest monetary indicators confirm that the Bank of England’s asset purchases under its quantitative easing (QE) programme are providing some boost to the money holdings of the non-bank sector... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Revised economic growth outlook will not underpin house prices Yesterday, we revised up our forecasts for economic growth in the UK. Our new forecasts still leave the economy on a very weak path, which will not prevent further falls in employment and household... 9th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Risk appetite to fade as recovery disappoints Today we have revised our key economic forecasts. At the same time, we have updated our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth revised higher, but outlook still very weak Upward revisions to our global economic forecasts and an improvement in the economic data at home have led us to revise our forecasts for UK GDP growth higher. But the outlook remains weak and... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth revised higher, but outlook still very weak Upward revisions to our global economic forecasts and an improvement in the economic data at home have led us to revise our forecasts for UK GDP growth higher. But the outlook remains weak and... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC holds fire for now, but more QE probably ahead The MPC’s decision to pause today was no surprise in the light of the announcement only last month to extend quantitative easing and recent signs of improvement in the economic data. But we still... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC holds fire for now, but more QE probably ahead The MPC’s decision to pause today was no surprise in the light of the announcement only last month to extend quantitative easing and recent signs of improvement in the economic data. But we still... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lenders fail to pass on fall in funding costs The falling level of interbank lending rates has been an encouraging aspect of the recent improvement in conditions in both financial markets and the wider economy. Unfortunately, there is limited... 26th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How serious is the threat to AAA sovereign ratings? The chances that a country like the UK or even the US might lose its AAA rating in the coming years are rather greater than generally assumed. However, the consequences for the financial markets may... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary indicators show that the boost to the monetary base from the Bank of England’s asset purchases is not yet feeding through into a ignificant pick-up in lending to the wider economy. 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Corporate bond issuance won't plug the lending gap The recent pick-up in corporate bond issuance suggests that, even though banks remain reluctant to lend, companies are managing to access funds from elsewhere. However, it looks unlikely that higher... 19th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Whatever the letter, a full recovery will take time Recent speculation over the likely shape of the recovery apparently underway in the UK and global economies has read like a tin of alphabet spaghetti – will it be U, V, or W-shaped? A look back at... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising bad debts to constrain bank lending The latest results from the major UK banks, showing sharp rises in customer loan defaults, underline our view that any recovery in bank lending will be extremely gradual. 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
