UK Economics Update Whatever the letter, a full recovery will take time Recent speculation over the likely shape of the recovery apparently underway in the UK and global economies has read like a tin of alphabet spaghetti – will it be U, V, or W-shaped? A look back at... 13th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising bad debts to constrain bank lending The latest results from the major UK banks, showing sharp rises in customer loan defaults, underline our view that any recovery in bank lending will be extremely gradual. 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC steps up QE, but effects still highly uncertain While the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision today to step up its programme of quantitative easing (QE) came a month earlier than we anticipated, there are still considerable uncertainties over the... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Far too early for a labour market recovery Activity in the labour market appears to have shared somewhat in the improvement seen in the wider economy over the past month or two. However, the lagging nature of unemployment means that it is far... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Far too early for a labour market recovery Activity in the labour market appears to have shared somewhat in the improvement seen in the wider economy over the past month or two. However, the lagging nature of unemployment means that it is far... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much should we worry about swine flu? The outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and its spread to other countries has inevitably raised questions about the broader economic and market implications. While not wanting to downplay the social costs... 27th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Now that the Monetary Policy Committee has entered the uncharted waters of quantitative easing, the monetary indicators have moved to the top of the watchlist. In this UK Economics Update, which we... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Treat green shoots with a little caution Barely a day goes by at the moment without another newspaper story on the “green shoots” of recovery or a new forecast predicting a significant improvement in the health of the UK economy. But it is... 20th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More upside for the pound, at least against the euro While some of sterling’s recent strengthening may reflect short-term factors which could be quickly reversed, there are more fundamental reasons to expect the pound to rise, at least against the euro. 16th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC stays tight-lipped on QE With Mervyn King signalling already that interest rates were unlikely to fall again, this MPC meeting was all about the unconventional policy measures - so-called “quantitative easing” or QE -... 9th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in consumer confidence offers tentative hope The recent rise in consumer confidence offers tentative hopes of a recovery further ahead. But we need far more evidence than this before we can conclude that an end to the recession is in sight. 31st March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in consumer confidence offers tentative hope The recent rise in consumer confidence offers tentative hopes of a recovery further ahead. But we need far more evidence than this before we can conclude that an end to the recession is in sight. 31st March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rebound in "discretionary income" will not spur spending recovery The amount of household nominal income available for discretionary spending has rebounded strongly. How much of this income will actually be spent is another matter, however. 17th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rebound in "discretionary income" will not spur spending recovery The amount of household nominal income available for discretionary spending has rebounded strongly. How much of this income will actually be spent is another matter, however. 17th March 2009 · 1 min read
