UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Broad money growth is still heading in the wrong direction. Bank lending remains weak too, and we continue to expect relatively tight credit conditions to act as a brake on the economic recovery in... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 2011 to be the year of QE2 With the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still sitting firmly on the proverbial fence, this month’s no-change decision is all but certain to be repeated in the next month or two. But we still think... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can stockbuilding keep the recovery going? With the fiscal squeeze set to kick in soon and the outlook for demand in the UK’s main export markets looking weak, one remaining hope is that stockbuilding could support the recovery next year. In... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR sounds a cautious note The downgrades to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic growth forecasts for the next two years are hardly a vote of confidence in the Government’s claim that the economy is capable of... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is still little evidence of any pick-up in the growth rate of the broad money supply – supporting Mervyn King’s view that inflation will fall further ahead. Meanwhile, bank lending remains... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What does the Irish crisis mean for the UK? Concerns have grown that the Irish debt crisis could have severe consequences for the UK economy. But our impression is that any effects on the UK economy are likely to be pretty small. 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fragile consumer sentiment points to spending slowdown The sluggish trend in consumer confidence points to renewed weakness in consumer spending growth ahead. And sentiment yet might deteriorate further. 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fragile consumer sentiment points to spending slowdown The sluggish trend in consumer confidence points to renewed weakness in consumer spending growth ahead. And sentiment yet might deteriorate further. 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE2 still likely as recovery fades The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) not to follow the Fed in implementing more quantitative easing (QE) today no doubt reflected the stronger tone of the economic data over the past... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE2 still likely as recovery fades The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) not to follow the Fed in implementing more quantitative easing (QE) today no doubt reflected the stronger tone of the economic data over the past... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Broad money growth still looks very weak, with the pick-up seen earlier this year now looking like a statistical quirk. This supports the view of some MPC members, including Mervyn King, that a... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Construction recovery built on fragile foundations The strong revival in construction output has been a key factor behind the recent strength of GDP growth. But we doubt that the sector will continue to support the recovery from here. 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending Review spells out the pain In spelling out the detail of the planned cuts in public spending, today’s Spending Review underlined the challenge the Government faces to sort out the public finances. We continue to believe that... 20th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low company failures keep a lid on redundancies One explanation for the relatively small drop in employment during this recession is the muted pickup in company insolvencies. But a number of factors could prompt insolvencies to rise further... 12th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low company failures keep a lid on redundancies One explanation for the relatively small drop in employment during this recession is the muted pickup in company insolvencies. But a number of factors could prompt insolvencies to rise further... 12th October 2010 · 1 min read
