UK Economics Update Plan B worries underline low interest rate outlook The ongoing concerns over the lack of a “Plan B”, should the economy be weaker than the Government’s fiscal plans assume, underline the need for interest rates to stay low for a long time yet. 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fringes of UK to be worst affected by fiscal squeeze The relative performance of the regions of the UK over the next few years depends in part on their different exposure to the public sector and the fiscal squeeze. The fringes of the UK – and Northern... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary indicators show that broad money growth remains exceptionally weak, suggesting that the recent slowdown in the pace of economic recovery may be more than just a temporary soft... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the manufacturing recovery run out of steam? The industrial recovery appears to have come off the boil. However, although the manufacturing sector now looks unlikely to return to the impressive 5% plus annual growth rates seen towards the end of... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bulk of fiscal squeeze yet to come The recent slowdown in the pace of recovery is probably due in part to the fiscal tightening measures that have already been put in place. But with the bulk of the government spending cuts yet to come... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Case for a rate hike weakening Given the dismal state of the recovery, it was hardly a surprise that the Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates on hold today. Most forecasters have reacted to the recent run of weaker news by... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay settlements provide little cause for concern It is often assumed that the fiscal squeeze is driving the current weakness of consumer spending and that government measures – such as a VAT cut – are all that are needed to get the consumer recovery... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Monetary indicators continue to show that broad money growth is exceptionally weak, consistent with inflation eventually falling sharply in the medium term. 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the trade figures better than they look? Rising commodity prices have been boosting import values, meaning that the underlying trade deficit is not quite as bad as the headline figures suggest. Nonetheless, this goes only some of the way to... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak economic news could yet stave off a rate hike There had been little to suggest that the Committee had altered its view since the last meeting, so the no-change decision today was of little surprise. However, the next meeting – coinciding with May... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Next wave of fiscal tightening hits households The next wave of the fiscal consolidation will hit households this week on so-called “worse off Wednesday”, the first day of the new financial year. We expect the net impact of the main measures... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest set of monetary indicators add to the reasons to think that medium-term price pressures in the economy are still very weak and that inflation will therefore fall back next year. 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist 2011 This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak economic news could yet stave off a rate hike With the economic outlook little clearer than when it last met, it was never that likely that the Monetary Policy Committee would act today. We still think that the chances of an interest rate rise in... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How worrying is the rise in companies' price expectations? Concerns about the knock-on effects of the rise in inflation on inflation expectations tend to focus on the expectations of households and financial markets. But of most direct importance for the... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The MPC’s preferred measure of broad money growth has continued to accelerate and is now getting pretty close to the rates the Committee has been aiming for. However, we doubt that this growth can be... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
