UK Economics Update Will the MPC be panicked into raising rates? The build-up of near-term price pressures has prompted a widespread re-think of when, and how far, interest rates will start to rise. While a near-term rate hike certainly now looks more possible, we... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update VAT inflation effects shouldn't panic the MPC Perhaps the biggest risk facing the household sector is the possibility of a near-term interest rate rise. We do not think that a modest rate rise would have a disastrous effect on household incomes... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A tough year ahead for consumers The early evidence suggests that consumers have been out in force over the Christmas and new year “sales” period, helping to make up for any shopping trips cancelled before Christmas due to the snow... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Broad money growth is still heading in the wrong direction. Bank lending remains weak too, and we continue to expect relatively tight credit conditions to act as a brake on the economic recovery in... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 2011 to be the year of QE2 With the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still sitting firmly on the proverbial fence, this month’s no-change decision is all but certain to be repeated in the next month or two. But we still think... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can stockbuilding keep the recovery going? With the fiscal squeeze set to kick in soon and the outlook for demand in the UK’s main export markets looking weak, one remaining hope is that stockbuilding could support the recovery next year. In... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR sounds a cautious note The downgrades to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic growth forecasts for the next two years are hardly a vote of confidence in the Government’s claim that the economy is capable of... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is still little evidence of any pick-up in the growth rate of the broad money supply – supporting Mervyn King’s view that inflation will fall further ahead. Meanwhile, bank lending remains... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What does the Irish crisis mean for the UK? Concerns have grown that the Irish debt crisis could have severe consequences for the UK economy. But our impression is that any effects on the UK economy are likely to be pretty small. 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fragile consumer sentiment points to spending slowdown The sluggish trend in consumer confidence points to renewed weakness in consumer spending growth ahead. And sentiment yet might deteriorate further. 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fragile consumer sentiment points to spending slowdown The sluggish trend in consumer confidence points to renewed weakness in consumer spending growth ahead. And sentiment yet might deteriorate further. 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE2 still likely as recovery fades The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) not to follow the Fed in implementing more quantitative easing (QE) today no doubt reflected the stronger tone of the economic data over the past... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE2 still likely as recovery fades The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) not to follow the Fed in implementing more quantitative easing (QE) today no doubt reflected the stronger tone of the economic data over the past... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Broad money growth still looks very weak, with the pick-up seen earlier this year now looking like a statistical quirk. This supports the view of some MPC members, including Mervyn King, that a... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Construction recovery built on fragile foundations The strong revival in construction output has been a key factor behind the recent strength of GDP growth. But we doubt that the sector will continue to support the recovery from here. 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
