UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Nov.) The new annual regional data suggest that the widely-held view that London’s economy has fared better than other regions of the UK over the last couple of years is unfounded. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will "splendid isolation" affect the UK? David Cameron’s decision to pull away from Europe has called into question the UK’s entire future in the European Union. But when it comes to the UK’s near-term growth prospects, the debate over... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE possible as soon as January Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the Chancellor right to take the credit for low gilt yields? The Chancellor has frequently claimed that his commitment to fiscal austerity has earned the UK credibility in financial markets and has been the decisive factor behind the fall in gilt yields. But... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FSR highlights growing risk of credit crunch The Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) suggests that a second credit crunch might already be starting to hit the UK. A renewed tightening of credit conditions is just one reason to... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth prospects worsen as euro-zone break-up nears David Cameron’s decision to pull away from Europe has called into question the UK’s entire future in the European Union. But when it comes to the UK’s near-term growth prospects, the debate over... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Little cause for cheer on Northern Rock sale The unprofitable sale of Northern Rock should dent any hopes that the Government will be able to sell profitably its remaining stakes in the other nationalised banks in the near future. 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Oct.) The latest regional activity surveys suggest that the southern regions of the UK have borne the brunt of the economy’s recent weakness. But there are signs that the North’s outperformance will be... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC unlikely to pause for long Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The pronounced weakness of the latest broad money and lending data suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was right to restart QE in October. However, the MPC seems to be getting less ‘bang... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro crisis to tip the UK back into recession The euro-zone debt crisis is likely to have severe adverse effects on the UK economy at a time when domestic contractionary forces are building. We now expect UK GDP growth to slow from about 0.8%... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Sep.) The latest regional data suggest that the northern regions of the UK have recently managed to grow at a similar, albeit sluggish, pace to those in the South. However, conditions in the northern labour... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE2 won't eliminate recession risks The MPC’s decision to re-launch its quantitative easing programme today confirms that the Committee finally recognises that the major threat to the UK is renewed recession, not inflation. But previous... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The continued weakness of the money supply figures supports the case for thinking that inflation will fall back sharply next year and therefore bolsters the arguments of those on the Monetary Policy... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth forecasts revised down; recession risks rising The recent weakness of the news on the domestic economy and the deterioration in the overseas outlook – particularly in the euro-zone – has made us concerned that even our bearish forecasts for UK GDP... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The privatised utilities are one route to higher investment Attention has focussed in recent days on the wiggle room in the current fiscal plans for greater than currently planned public sector investment. But the Government could also boost investment without... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
