UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The continued weakness of the money supply figures supports the case for thinking that inflation will fall back sharply next year and therefore bolsters the arguments of those on the Monetary Policy... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth forecasts revised down; recession risks rising The recent weakness of the news on the domestic economy and the deterioration in the overseas outlook – particularly in the euro-zone – has made us concerned that even our bearish forecasts for UK GDP... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The privatised utilities are one route to higher investment Attention has focussed in recent days on the wiggle room in the current fiscal plans for greater than currently planned public sector investment. But the Government could also boost investment without... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Aug.) None of the regions of the UK were immune from the severe economic slowdown in August. Meanwhile, public sector job cuts have hit the South West and North East particularly hard. 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Case for more QE strengthening The MPC’s decision to re-launch its quantitative easing programme today confirms that the Committee finally recognises that the major threat to the UK is renewed recession, not inflation. But previous... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Monetary indicators continue to suggest that underlying inflationary pressures are pretty weak. Meanwhile, firms have continued to pay down their debts, suggesting that business investment is unlikely... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Overseas examples suggest VAT cuts costly and ineffectual Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Encouraging private sector investment should be part of any Plan B Creating more favourable conditions for private sector investment is just one of the ways in which the Government could help the economy to survive the fiscal squeeze without actually rowing back on... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jul.) The latest regional indicators suggest that the North-South economic divide has continued to widen, with a pick-up in output growth in the South – particularly in London – failing to broaden out to... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What consumers need most is lower commodity prices It is often assumed that the fiscal squeeze is driving the current weakness of consumer spending and that government measures – such as a VAT cut – are all that are needed to get the consumer recovery... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bounce in UK equities unlikely to continue The recent fall in UK equities seems a bit overdone relative to the news on the domestic economy. Nonetheless, UK equities may continue to struggle if risks build in the global financial system. 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stock market turmoil increases double dip risks The possible adverse effects of the recent sharp fall in equity prices on confidence and consumers’ wealth have increased the risks that the economy starts to contract again. While our central... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Struggling recovery needs low interest rates The MPC’s decision to re-launch its quantitative easing programme today confirms that the Committee finally recognises that the major threat to the UK is renewed recession, not inflation. But previous... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Four reasons why gilt yields will stay low Gilt yields have fallen sharply since February, with 10-year yields now equal to the 50-year or so low of 2.75% that they reached in March 2009. But there are good reasons to think that gilt yields... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Broad money and lending growth remained exceptionally weak in July, suggesting that nominal GDP growth is likely to ease back in time. The case for more quantitative easing is getting stronger. 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Which measure of employment is right? There has been a striking divergence between the two main measures of employment recently. But regardless of which is painting the more accurate picture, the labour market outlook remains poor. 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
