UK Economics Update Are the official GDP figures too gloomy? The substantial divergence between the preliminary estimate of GDP and the closely-watched CIPS activity surveys has led many to question whether the official figures will be revised stronger in time... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will borrowing respond to the recovery as the OBR hopes? We doubt that economic growth will be as strong as the OBR expects. But even if it is right, it may be too optimistic about the positive impact this will have on the public finances. 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Apr.) The latest regional figures suggest that the pace of economic recovery has increasingly diverged between the regions, with growth strengthening in most areas of the Midlands and the South, but... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Shale gas will transform the UK energy market (eventually) It may still be many years before the UK’s huge reserves of shale gas can be profitably exploited on a large scale, but the impact could then be significant. Even in the near term, the boom in the... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE in May still in the balance Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to stay the course and complete the previously authorised asset purchases was always likely, given the pattern of past QE decisions. While the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The continued weakness of the broad money and lending figures supports our view that the Monetary Policy Committee will yet have to provide the economy with even more stimulus. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is government spending falling? Recent claims that, despite the fiscal squeeze, government spending is still rising in real terms have revived the debate about whether the spending plans are actually as tough as they look. But while... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK banks still heavily exposed to the euro-zone Today’s Bank of England figures showed that UK banks further reduced their exposures to European countries in the final quarter of last year. Nonetheless, the euro-zone debt crisis continues to pose a... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Droughts could slow fall in inflation Droughts across the UK and some of Western Europe are threatening to push up food prices. Along with the recent rise in energy prices, this might prevent CPI inflation from falling as sharply as hoped... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Mar.) The latest regional figures suggest that the economic recovery remains weakest of all in Northern Ireland, but has continued to gather momentum the most in the West Midlands. Meanwhile, although the... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 100 year gilt issue underlines UK safe-haven status Reports that the Chancellor is considering issuing bonds of 100 years or more in order to take advantage of the government’s low borrowing costs underline the UK’s perceived safe-haven status relative... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consensus wrong in thinking MPC done with QE Reports that the Chancellor is considering issuing bonds of 100 years or more in order to take advantage of the government’s low borrowing costs underline the UK’s perceived safe-haven status relative... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 0.5% rates - 3 years down, another 3 to go? Tomorrow’s MPC meeting marks the third anniversary of interest rates reaching a record low of just 0.5% in March 2009. We think that they could stay at this level for another three years. 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Focus on oil prices neglects wider commodity picture The recent rise in oil prices has sparked fears that CPI inflation will not fall as fast as hoped. However, the focus on oil prices ignores the fact that other commodity prices have risen by less, if... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The broad money supply bounced back in January, suggesting that the extreme weakness at the end of last year was just temporary. But the underlying trend still looks too weak to support a sustained... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ECB reduces risk of UK credit crunch, for now The ECB’s second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) conducted this morning should alleviate the risk of a renewed credit crunch, not just in the euro-zone, but in the UK too. However, UK bank... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
