UK Economics Update Focus on oil prices neglects wider commodity picture The recent rise in oil prices has sparked fears that CPI inflation will not fall as fast as hoped. However, the focus on oil prices ignores the fact that other commodity prices have risen by less, if... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The broad money supply bounced back in January, suggesting that the extreme weakness at the end of last year was just temporary. But the underlying trend still looks too weak to support a sustained... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ECB reduces risk of UK credit crunch, for now The ECB’s second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) conducted this morning should alleviate the risk of a renewed credit crunch, not just in the euro-zone, but in the UK too. However, UK bank... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers in a sweet spot The rise in consumer spending in the final quarter of last year added to other evidence that the consumer recovery is gaining momentum. Falling inflation should continue to alleviate the squeeze on... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update PPI payments don’t change consumer spending outlook Today’s data from the FSA showed that banks are picking up the pace at which they are compensating consumers for mis-sold Payment Protection Insurance (PPI). While the compensation will provide a... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Feb.) Most of the UK regions shared in the improvement in output growth suggested by the national and global activity surveys in January. But labour and housing markets in the North are continuing to fare... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro-zone recession to hit UK exports soon The recent rise in oil prices has sparked fears that CPI inflation will not fall as fast as hoped. However, the focus on oil prices ignores the fact that other commodity prices have risen by less, if... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher inflation has made the public finances worse Today’s data from the FSA showed that banks are picking up the pace at which they are compensating consumers for mis-sold Payment Protection Insurance (PPI). While the compensation will provide a... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Project Merlin has not got credit flowing again The major UK banks have more or less met the Project Merlin lending targets set by the Government. But these targets were fairly meaningless in the first place and there are plenty of reasons to... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Extra £50bn unlikely to be the last of QE The MPC’s decision to increase its asset purchase programme by another £50bn was as expected and confirmed that the recent improvement in the economic data has not alleviated the need for policymakers... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Might UK interest rates turn negative? The major UK banks have more or less met the Project Merlin lending targets set by the Government. But these targets were fairly meaningless in the first place and there are plenty of reasons to... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The continued weakness of broad money and lending growth bolsters the case for the MPC to announce another round of quantitative easing (QE) at February’s meeting. 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why haven’t UK interest rates fallen as far as elsewhere? During the financial crisis, many countries cut official interest rates to below the 0.5% level seen in the UK. If they can reach this level elsewhere, we do not see why they cannot do so in the UK... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Osborne’s hidden windfall Quantitative easing (QE) is not only helping to reduce gilt yields for the Government, but it is also lowering the amount that the Government is paying out in debt interest and therefore helping to... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How would a European Tobin Tax affect the UK? France is spearheading a drive to push ahead with a “Tobin tax” on financial transactions in Europe, even though the UK has ruled out taking part. If a comprehensive tax were introduced, the potential... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jan.) There are obviously major uncertainties about what form Scottish independence might take if it happens, including what currency Scotland might use and what responsibility for RBS she might take on... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
