UK Economics Update Would leaving the EU damage the UK economy? A referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU seems to be becoming a more realistic prospect. We think that concerns about the economic disruption if the UK were to leave are overdone. In fact, the... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jun.) The latest regional figures show that the northern and devolved regions of the UK have begun to bear more of the brunt of the economic slowdown. It seems likely to be only a matter of time before this... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Who is benefiting most from falling inflation? Most households should be benefiting from the fall in inflation, but lower income households should gain the most as food and energy price inflation ease further. 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Policymakers step up a gear UK policymakers last night announced that they are significantly stepping up their efforts to try to cushion the UK economy from the effects of the euro-zone crisis. The measures should help to ease... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Under the weather? The recent swings in weather conditions and retail sales have brought to the fore the issue of the impact of the weather on consumer spending. There are occasions when the weather can have an impact... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fall in inventories could trigger wider weakness The UK’s return to recession in the past two quarters has been driven by a fall in stockbuilding. Stockbuilding is an erratic component of GDP and so this weakness might just be temporary. However, if... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE3 won’t be long Lingering upside risks to inflation prompted the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep its asset purchase programme on hold at today’s meeting, despite the increasing turmoil in the euro-zone... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A fiscal ‘free lunch’? The debate around fiscal policy has tended to become polarised between advocates of austerity, who argue that any relaxation of deficit reduction would bring down the wrath of markets, and opponents... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) April’s household borrowing figures painted a weak picture, suggesting that lending growth is still too weak to foster a sustainable recovery in consumer spending. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) With money growth still very weak, we continue to think that another extension of quantitative easing is very close. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Greek exit mean for gilts? Although a Greek exit from the euro-zone might indirectly tarnish gilts’ safe-haven status, the economic disruption that it would cause would probably apply additional downward pressure on gilt yields... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Zigzag year to mask weak underlying trend Mervyn King characterised 2012 as a “zigzag year”. Output will certainly bounce around over the next few quarters, but we expect the underlying trend to be flat to slightly down. 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Drop in household wealth another drag on spending The recent fall in household wealth highlights one key way in which consumers are already suffering from the impact of the Greek debt crisis. A sustained recovery in real household spending continues... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (May) According to the latest figures, differences in regional economic growth rates have begun to narrow. Meanwhile, there are signs that London’s economic recovery is starting to be undermined by emerging... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower petrol prices to add some fuel to consumer recovery The recent fall in oil prices should, if maintained, bring petrol prices down by enough to boost consumers’ annual disposable incomes by about 0.2%. However, this will not be enough to stop real pay... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Grexit mean for the UK? The UK has few direct exposures to Greece. However, if Greece defaults on its debt, and perhaps leaves the euro-zone, the UK would still stand to suffer indirectly from the fallout. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
