UK Economics Update Will the UK join the negative yield club? Gilt yields at the short end of the curve reached a new record low today and currently stand only a whisker above zero. If concerns about UK banks build, or if official interest rates fall further... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE and rate cut likely later this year It is only a month since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resumed its quantitative easing (QE) programme, so no action was likely at today’s meeting. Nonetheless, we expect both an interest rate... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul. 12) Broad money and lending growth plumbed new lows in June, supporting our subdued forecasts for both inflation and economic growth. 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures seem to have been depressed by a series of temporary factors. Nonetheless, there are also signs that both the underlying supply of and demand for credit is fading. 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Improvement in misery index may not last A look at the so-called misery index, a simple sum of the unemployment and inflation rates, suggests that households should be starting to feel a bit happier. But we think that the recent improvement... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fears about impact of downgrade overdone The news that the economy contracted for a third successive quarter has led to renewed warnings that the UK will lose its AAA credit rating. We have long been of the view that the weakness of the... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further rate cut looks likely A further interest rate cut is looking increasing likely. We have pencilled in a 25bps reduction in November, taking official rates to 0.25%. And it is possible that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will global food prices prevent a recovery in real incomes? The 30% increase in global agricultural commodity prices over the last month has prompted fears of a renewed squeeze on households’ incomes. However, food prices would have to rise much further to... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jul.) The latest regional figures show that the economic recovery in the Midlands has lost considerable pace. Meanwhile, although the official figures show that employment has continued to grow in most of... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Government guarantees are a positive step, but may not do much The Government’s new scheme to use its balance sheet to boost private sector infrastructure spending is a step in the right direction. However, there are a number of reasons why the eventual boost to... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is lending to households set to increase? There are some reasons to hope that households should soon find it a bit easier and cheaper to borrow. But whether households will want to borrow more is another matter. 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising pound dents UK export hopes further The further rise in the pound against the euro appears to reflect safe-haven demand for UK assets and the weakening outlook for the euro-zone economy. These factors could yet push sterling higher. 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What to expect from inflation for the rest of this year A further fall in inflation this year is largely “baked in the cake”. Here we outline the main factors set to influence inflation over the rest of 2012. By the end of the year, it could be below 1%. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) Unsecured consumer credit growth has picked up, although we think that this could be an indication of consumer weakness rather than strength. There are still few signs of a more widespread recovery in... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The weakness of money and lending growth is one factor likely to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to announce more quantitative easing (QE) this week. 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Households hit by further fall in incomes Today’s news on the state of households’ finances revealed that the continued drop in real income is taking its toll on consumer spending, as well as preventing households from taking the steps... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
