UK Economics Update Falling inflation lays the ground for more QE The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was predictable given the absence of any major economic surprises in recent weeks. We still expect more asset purchases to be announced in November... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Leading indicators point to falls in employment ahead The latest leading labour market indicators suggest that the recent recovery in private sector employment is likely to run out of steam soon. So, with job cuts continuing in the public sector, it... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) The latest household borrowing indicators are similar in tone to last week’s national accounts in suggesting that weak borrowing growth is holding back any recovery in consumer spending. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.12) On the face of it, the pick-up in the MPC’s preferred measure of broad money growth supports the Committee’s view that its asset purchases are still having a significant impact on the economy. But... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pensions auto-enrolment another factor pushing up saving The Government’s new pensions auto-enrolment scheme gets underway today. In its initial stages, the new contributions that some workers will start to pay will probably have only a modest effect on... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rare increase in households’ real incomes Today figures showing that household incomes grew strongly in the second quarter were a rare snippet of good news. But the figures also revealed that consumers remain more focused on repairing their... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the “Industrial Strategy” boost business investment? After announcing measures to support construction last week, today the Government has turned its attention to business investment. However, there appears to be little in Vince Cable’s “Industrial... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak economy to prompt more stimulus by end of year The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was unsurprising and may partly have reflected a desire to wait to see what comes out of today’s ECB meeting. We still expect more asset purchases to... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the house-building package deliver? Of the raft of policies announced since the Government returned after the summer break, today’s measures to boost house-building are perhaps likely to have the biggest economic impact. That said, they... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Respite in bad debts unlikely to last Recent evidence suggests that households are finding it a bit easier to cope with their high levels of debt. However, this is unlikely to last if unemployment rises as we expect. 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Household borrowing recovered in July after it was depressed by temporary factors in June. Nonetheless, the big picture is that borrowing growth remains very weak. 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) Household borrowing recovered in July after it was depressed by temporary factors in June. Nonetheless, the big picture is that borrowing growth remains very weak. 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in energy prices unlikely to prevent more stimulus The recent reversal of the 25% or so fall in oil prices earlier this year and the prospect of another round of utility price rises might now mean that CPI inflation struggles to fall below the 2%... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would extended Sunday trading hours help retailers? The Government is reportedly considering making permanent the temporary extension to Sunday trading hours for large retailers. We doubt that this would give much of a boost to overall retail spending... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze supposed to intensify next year The return to recession and the deterioration in the public finances have put the Chancellor in a tricky position, to put it mildly. His dilemma is made even worse by the fact that, on his current... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Emerging signs of an Olympics boost to spending After a slow start, there are tentative signs that the Olympic Games have given a small boost to overall consumer spending, in line with our expectations. Nonetheless, we suspect that this boost will... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
