UK Economics Update Inflation Report highlights squeeze on real pay Today’s figures from the ONS highlight how employees’ real earnings have fallen to levels last seen in 2003. And the Bank of England’s February Inflation Report suggested that the squeeze on... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would more flexible inflation-targeting achieve? Mark Carney suggested last Thursday that, rather than changing the monetary framework altogether, introducing more flexibility into the existing inflation-targeting regime is his preferred option. The... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC maintains accommodative stance Not only did the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leave policy on hold again today, but in his testimony to the Treasury Committee, Governor-to-be Mark Carney sounded less keen than before on a change... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Car industry shows exports can grow despite EZ malaise The UK car industry’s revival shows that it is possible for parts of the manufacturing sector to recover despite weakening demand from the euro-zone. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Growth of the broad money supply is still quite strong, but it is heading in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the recent loosening of credit conditions has not fed through into a meaningful pick-up in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is having a beneficial impact on credit growth. Nonetheless, the recovery in lending is... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Companies running faster just to stand still While the economy may be entering a “triple-dip”, employment growth continues to be surprisingly strong. A look at which sectors are creating jobs suggests that part of the rise in employment reflects... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising car sales unlikely to signal general consumer pick-up One rare bright spot in the consumer sector recently has been the pick-up in spending on cars. While cars comprise a relatively small part of overall consumer spending, this could still be promising... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sharp fall in the pound wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing Concerns are building that sterling is on the brink of a sharp fall. While certainly possible, it is not as inevitable as some appear to assume. And it might not be such a bad thing in any case. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The themes of the festive trading period It is looking pretty clear that the festive period was fairly underwhelming in terms of overall sales for the retail sector. But what do the retailers’ updates tell us of winners, losers and other... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE still in prospect (Jan 13) Although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left policy on hold again today, we expect to see more quantitative easing (QE) this year, as well as a possible shift towards more radical options. 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update RPI inflation should still fall despite lack of reforms Given that the National Statistician has decided not to alter the way RPI inflation is measured, the RPI rate will continue to run above the CPI measure for the foreseeable future. However, we still... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) Household borrowing continued to stagnate in November. While there are growing signs that the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is having a positive impact on borrowing costs, this is... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The broad money supply is continuing to expand at a decent pace, but growth has been easing off. Meanwhile, bank lending remains weak although there is some indication of a loosening in credit... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recent rise in gilt yields unlikely to herald upward trend Building hopes of global economic recovery, the deterioration in the UK’s inflation outlook and growing fiscal worries have combined to push 10-year gilt yields above 2% today for the first time since... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Real consumer spending to stagnate in 2013 Christmas trading on the high street appears to have been reasonable, but unspectacular. Following a difficult 2012, we do not have high hopes for retailers in 2013. In fact, consumer spending is... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
