UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The broad money supply is continuing to expand at a decent pace, but growth has been easing off. Meanwhile, bank lending remains weak although there is some indication of a loosening in credit... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recent rise in gilt yields unlikely to herald upward trend Building hopes of global economic recovery, the deterioration in the UK’s inflation outlook and growing fiscal worries have combined to push 10-year gilt yields above 2% today for the first time since... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Real consumer spending to stagnate in 2013 Christmas trading on the high street appears to have been reasonable, but unspectacular. Following a difficult 2012, we do not have high hopes for retailers in 2013. In fact, consumer spending is... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Economic malaise reflects more than energy sector’s decline Contrary to recent suggestions, the sluggishness of the economic recovery cannot be blamed in large part on the energy sector. The economy’s problems run deeper than this. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Any major boost to GDP from shale gas still some way off As well as raising hopes about the UK’s future energy independence, the Government’s decision to allow “fracking” in the North West of England to recommence has fostered optimism that the UK economy... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is it time to inject some reality into inflation targeting? Inflation continues to be boosted by external factors over which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can exercise little influence. One way to give the MPC more scope to help the economy could be to... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement confirms poor consumer spending outlook In order to fund corporate tax cuts and an infrastructure boost, yesterday’s Autumn Statement heaped more pain on consumers. Indeed, by announcing more benefit cuts for 2013 and 2014, and confirming... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE still in prospect Although the MPC left its quantitative easing (QE) programme on pause again at today’s meeting, we think that more asset purchases are likely before long. And yesterday’s gloomy Autumn Statement... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Household borrowing growth remains pretty weak, although there are tentative signs that the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is starting to have a positive impact. 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The broad money supply is continuing to grow at a decent pace. But there are question marks over whether that will last now that the MPC has paused its quantitative easing (QE) programme and whether... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the one-offs boosting inflation really one-offs? The Bank of England continues to argue that inflation is being kept high by a series of one-off factors. Many of the “idiosyncratic” factors boosting inflation at the moment may prove to be more than... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A sustained recovery in spending not underway yet While real household spending posted a decent rise in the third quarter, at least half of the increase was due to the Olympics. And with the fourth quarter shaping up to be weak, a sustained recovery... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Governor Carney will face new challenges Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is well-qualified to manage the Bank of England’s expanded role when he takes over from Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England at the end of next June... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Big challenges ahead for whoever is Governor It should not be long until we hear who will replace Sir Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England at the end of next June. It is thought that the appointment of a Bank “insider” might just lead... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will Christmas on the high street be a wash-out? October’s poor retail sales figures have prompted fears of a disappointing Christmas on the high street. While we doubt that it will be a write-off, we expect consumers to be cautious and retailers... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is monetary policy reaching its limits? Some members of the MPC appear to think that they are reaching the limits of how much monetary policy can help the economy. We agree that more gilt purchases might not do a lot of good. But this just... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
