UK Economics Update Bad weather could tip economy into triple-dip recession Although the current spell of cold and snowy weather is unlikely to have lasting economic consequences, a look back to previous cold snaps suggests that it might just be enough to make the difference... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Forward-looking guidance unlikely to save the day Following the rather vague change to the MPC’s remit announced in yesterday’s Budget, the ball is now back in the Bank of England’s court. But even if the Monetary Policy Committee decides to follow... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget measures amount to small beer for consumers While yesterday’s Budget resulted in a net giveaway to consumers, it did little to reduce the blow to household incomes which will be inflicted by further waves of austerity in the coming years. 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget 2013 – Can the Chancellor kick-start homebuilding? Further measures to boost homebuilding will reportedly form part of next week’s Budget. But past attempts have had little success. So what more could the Chancellor do, and with what effect? 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Older workers offer a mixed blessing The UK’s impressive employment performance has been driven in large part by a dramatic rise in employment among elderly people. This is a desirable development in light of the UK’s ageing population... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Switch to CPIH could form part of framework changes Two new inflation measures, CPIH and RPIJ, are being introduced this month. A switch in the targeted measure of inflation could be part of any shake-up of the monetary framework, although it is likely... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What impact will sterling's drop have on retailers' profits? Sterling’s fall has clouded the outlook for retailers’ profits by pushing up import prices. However, their profitability should still improve over the next year or two thanks to the fading of other... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC stays its hand, for now Although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left policy on hold again today, we expect that it will not take much to swing a majority of members in support of more stimulus in the near future. While... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Four years of 0.5% rates - at least another two to go Tomorrow’s MPC meeting marks the fourth anniversary of official interest rates reaching their record low of just 0.5% in March 2009. We doubt that they will rise before the second half of 2015 at the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Funding for Lending Scheme not boosting lending yet The second set of data on the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) suggested that take-up of the scheme is increasing, but that lending is not yet rising as a result. 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) Ostensibly, January’s household borrowing figures suggested that that the pick-up in credit growth seen in recent months is tailing off. However, the bad weather in January is likely to have played a... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 13) Growth of the broad money supply turned up in January, although we suspect that seasonal effects may have played a role. Meanwhile, bank lending remains weak although it is probably still too soon for... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending shows some signs of life Real household spending increased unexpectedly in Q4 of last year, leaving annual growth at 1.5%, the strongest rate since Q3 2010. This rise was particularly impressive given the downward impetus to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What next for sterling? We think the biggest falls in the pound may now be behind us. Granted, Moody’s decision to strip the UK of its AAA rating drove the currency down even further early on Monday. But sterling was fairly... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could the downgrade be a good thing? The sanguine market reaction to the loss of the UK’s triple-A credit rating begs the question of whether it might actually have some positive effects on the economy. But the key point is that the... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rating downgrade underlines economic weakness Moody’s downgrade of UK government debt from Aaa to Aa1 is unlikely to prompt any major changes to the Government’s fiscal plans, but underlines the weak outlook for the economy. 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
