UK Economics Update MPC takes first step towards forward guidance Although the Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates and quantitative easing unchanged at new Governor Mark Carney’s first meeting today, it took the first step towards introducing some sort of... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recent rise in yields need not spell fiscal gloom The recent jump in UK government borrowing costs is hardly a welcome development in the face of a budget deficit that remains historically high. But with some rise in yields already factored into... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) While broad money growth is holding firm, bank lending is continuing to contract. Although the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme appears to have stimulated consumer lending, corporate... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s household borrowing figures show that, with households continuing to take on new debt and signs of life in the housing market, a consumer recovery may be taking root. But with real incomes... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending recovery built on fragile foundations Today’s news on the state of households’ finances shows that consumer spending is continuing to rise despite falling real incomes. But that this is only being achieved by a sharp fall in saving... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending Review details only fraction of the pain left There were virtually no changes in the overall fiscal plans in today’s Spending Review. Accordingly, the Review did nothing to alter the prospect of a prolonged period of government spending cuts. In... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending Review to underline uphill battle facing recovery Next Wednesday’s Spending Review will essentially just flesh out how the cuts that have already been announced will be achieved. Nonetheless, the Government may use it to shift around its spending in... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Tentative rise in tax revenues another sign of recovery A tentative pick-up in tax receipts has lent some support to the growing signs of economic recovery. While the improvement is so far modest, tax revenues tend to lag changes in economic activity, so... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Real pay under pressure, however you measure it The Trades Union Congress grabbed headlines today with its analysis showing a dramatic drop in pay over the past five years. Although we believe the fall in wages is not quite as bad as reported, the... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mr Carney has work to do despite signs of recovery Mervyn King left his last Monetary Policy Committee meeting with his wish to restart the quantitative easing programme unfulfilled and the Committee still seemingly stuck in a state of limbo ahead of... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Car sales main beneficiary of looser credit conditions The recovery in new car sales continues to go from strength to strength. But it is still failing to translate into a broader pick-up in consumer spending and we remain sceptical that it will do so... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 13) The latest money figures suggest that the recovery is still being starved of credit and add to evidence that the Funding for Lending Scheme is having a disappointing impact on lending volumes. 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr. 13) April’s household borrowing figures are likely to quell some of the optimism arising from the recent run of better economic news. While the Funding for Lending Scheme has continued to drive down... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer support for growth fades Real household spending continued to support overall GDP growth in Q1, seeing its sixth successive quarterly rise. But it was the weakest rate of expansion in 18 months. And given a softer labour... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update key questions about the IMF’s proposals answered While the diplomatic language of today’s IMF press conference suggested that the Fund had backed down from criticising the Chancellor’s fiscal plans, its statement proposed several initiatives to... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Do new pensions rules brighten the investment outlook? The rally in financial markets and The Pension Regulator’s more flexible stance has eased some of the immediate pressure on firms to deal with the deficits of their defined benefit pension schemes... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
