UK Economics Update Delayed income may be helping to drive recovery Given the headwinds that still face the economy, identifying what is driving the recent momentum in the economy is a puzzle. One factor which might be playing a role is the shifting of income by high... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Impact of forward guidance is greater than it seems The absence of a fall in market interest rates after yesterday’s forward guidance does not mean that the tactic has been ineffective, as evidence shows it had a significant impact before it was... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the UK reached escape velocity? The further improvement in the economy has sparked suggestions that the UK has now reached “escape velocity”. A continued strong recovery is certainly possible, but it would be complacent to assume... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wonga won’t deliver the ‘wonga’ for a consumer recovery An expansion in ‘payday lending’ may be contributing to the recent growth in unsecured credit. But, over time, the cost of servicing a rising stock of high-interest debt will depress consumers’... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC pauses ahead of guidance decision Today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting was always looking likely to be a non-event ahead of the announcement about forward guidance due next week. Our best guess is that the MPC will commit... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) Net new lending to commercial property was negative for the 19th consecutive month in June and we do not think that the end of the deleveraging process is in sight yet. But with wider sentiment... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The UK’s monetary indicators continue to paint a mixed picture, with respectable growth in broad money contrasting with further falls in bank lending, particularly to firms as a whole. However, a... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun) June’s household borrowing figures showed a continuation of the modest expansion in credit seen in recent months. But with mortgage approvals unexpectedly declining, evidence of a marked rise in... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling inflation will benefit some more than others While all households have faced elevated inflation in recent years, the experience has not been uniform. However, differences in inflation rates are likely to be narrower over the next few years than... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Help to Buy may help to re-elect The Chancellor is today meeting major lenders and housebuilders to discuss how the second (mortgage guarantee) element of the Government’s Help to Buy programme will work. While the policy has been... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t take the pick-up in money growth too literally Boris Johnson suggests closing Heathrow and building a new airport at either Stansted or the Isle of Grain. (He is distancing himself from his original ‘Boris Island’ idea.) There could be serious... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment threshold would have its problems With Mark Carney having already primed expectations at July’s MPC meeting, we still expect the MPC to embark on full-blown forward guidance at its meeting next month. An unemployment threshold is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pound could play a greater role in policy under Carney Following Mr Carney’s arrival at the Bank of England, the pound this week touched its lowest level against the dollar since 2010. The fact that the new Governor seems to have had no qualms about... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will gilts decouple from US Treasuries? The continued lockstep movement of gilt and Treasury yields has called into question whether the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney faces an impossible task trying to decouple the two. However... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery faces bigger risks than higher rates The recent jump in long-term interest rates has raised concerns over the impact of higher borrowing costs on the nascent consumer recovery. While the rise clearly isn’t helpful, the continued squeeze... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rates to stay low despite recovering economy We are publishing our latest UK Quarterly Review today and the economic mood has brightened considerably since the last Review when a triple-dip was still a real possibility. Although GDP growth over... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
