UK Economics Update Different MPC views could further weaken forward guidance Mark Carney’s forward guidance has been unsuccessful in convincing the markets that the Bank Rate is likely to remain on hold until 2016. Speeches from other MPC members in the last two days... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a rising profit share be less lucrative for the economy? With recent data showing no sign of a pick-up in workers’ pay, the economic recovery looks promising for UK firms’ profits. But it is questionable quite how much this will aid in rebalancing the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Workforce to receive boost from Romanians and Bulgarians Relatively strong growth in the workforce is one factor that should prevent the unemployment rate from falling quickly towards the Bank of England’s 7% threshold. An influx of workers from Romania and... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Housebuilding should continue to support the recovery Although there are worries that the Government’s housing schemes will push up house prices rather than activity, housebuilding has picked up and we expect it to give further support to the recovery. 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have exporters diversified at the wrong time? The recent slowdown in emerging market (EM) economies begs the question of whether UK exporters have shot themselves in the foot by expanding into these markets in recent years. However, the growth... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won't ignore wider measures of labour market slack By choosing the unemployment rate as its threshold for forward guidance, the MPC has been criticised for using a fairly narrow measure of slack in the labour market. However, we doubt that this will... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update But is it the right type of recovery for the Chancellor? 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Vodafone payout won’t top up the economy With Vodafone’s sale of its stake in the US telecoms company Verizon expected to deliver almost £24bn to UK investors, the potential impact has been compared to that of the Bank of England’s... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No-change decision could mask split vote The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unsurprisingly left policy on hold today in the wake of its recent introduction of forward guidance on interest rates and the stronger economic news. But if markets... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug 13.) The latest monetary indicators show that bank lending is starting to pick up. But July’s rise in lending is not as good as it seems, since it largely reflected firms swapping bond for bank finance... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul 13.) Household borrowing is continuing to expand, but fairly modestly. Despite fears that the Bank of England’s commitment to low interest rates will spark another credit boom, the main problem still seems... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Carney’s words fall on deaf ears Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave an unambiguously dovish maiden speech today but he still seems to be fighting a losing battle against the financial markets. It is looking as though the MPC... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending continues its ascent Real household spending saw a further expansion in Q2, its seventh successive quarterly rise. But with earnings growth still subdued, the recovery’s foundations are hardly watertight. Nonetheless... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stronger growth won’t prompt early interest rate rise We are revising up our GDP growth forecasts in response to the continued improvement in the economic news. Although there remain some constraints on growth which will keep it sub-par this year and... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What is driving nominal pay growth down? A notable development over the past year has been the further step down in the rate of nominal pay growth. This seems most likely to have reflected the previous slowdown in productivity growth... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could the MPC have been bolder with its threshold? While the MPC has emphasised that interest rates will not automatically rise when unemployment reaches 7%, the Committee could arguably have been bolder in setting a lower threshold. 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
