UK Economics Update Falling real wages are not all bad news for spending The ongoing decline in real average earnings is often presented as a threat to the recovery. But the flip side of falling real pay has been rising employment. This has supported growth in total real... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surplus ambitions raise some problematic issues The main political parties have recently been fighting amongst themselves for the mantle of fiscal responsibility. But ambitions on both sides for a budget surplus exaggerate the influence politicians... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the unemployment rate an outlier? The fall in unemployment has not been out of line with the wider evidence on the labour market or the economy. But the uncertainty over the implications for inflation suggests that the Monetary Policy... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Housing upturn not all good news for durables retailers The UK's image as a 'nation of homeowners' overlooks the fact that homeownership has dropped significantly in recent years. And, to the extent that soaring property prices push down owner occupation... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment still well above an "equilibrium" rate Although the unemployment rate is falling rapidly, there is plenty of evidence that it is still well above a level that would generate inflation and require official interest rates to rise soon. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strong growth could help to keep inflation low A continuation of the UK’s recent combination of increasing growth and falling inflation would seem too good to be true. But several factors, including a return to health in the banking sector and the... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Jan.13) While Wednesday’s labour market figures are likely to show that the unemployment rate fell again in November, a swift fall to the 7% threshold used for the MPC’s forward guidance is not assured. A... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC likely to adapt forward guidance soon While today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting passed without event, the Committee may soon adjust its forward guidance. Since there are no signs that falling unemployment is stoking inflation... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec 13.) While further robust growth in the broad money supply supports signs that the economic recovery has remained strong, the continued weakness of bank lending remains one reason to doubt that the pace of... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov 13.) The economic recovery is still not being accompanied by any marked pick-up in household borrowing. And with borrowing costs likely to increase in coming months, the chances of a credit boom in 2014... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery relying on less saving Today's news on the state of households' finances shows that the recent growth of household spending has been driven partly by households saving less. However, 2014 should see a more resilient basis... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Dec.) The odds seem in favour of Wednesday’s labour market figures revealing another fall in the jobless rate. While in recent months the MPC has tried to downplay the importance of the unemployment... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are gilts still vulnerable to Fed tapering? The MPC’s forward guidance has continued to be relatively unsuccessful in decoupling markets in the UK from those in the US. However, investors seem to have largely priced in the prospect of tapering... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Do consumers get the MPC's 'mood music'? Recent rises in inflation and interest rate expectations might contradict claims by Mark Carney that households understand the MPC’s forward guidance. But we are not too concerned about the former at... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement provides modest gain to consumers With sizeable improvements in the economic and fiscal forecasts, December’s Autumn Statement gave the Chancellor leeway to announce measures which will provide some modest support to consumers’... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC's inaction speaks louder than words While the MPC’s communications have arguably become a little less clear over the last month or two, Committee members seem united in the fundamental belief that inflation pressures will remain subdued... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
