UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Recent strong growth in certain measures of broad money suggests that the economic recovery has plenty of momentum at present. But the continued weakness of bank lending remains a reason to be... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) Despite the revival in the housing market and the role of consumer spending in driving the rebound in the economy, the economic recovery continues to remain a relatively creditless one. But this... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation expectations pose little threat to guidance On close inspection, the recent rises in inflation expectations among households and in the gilt market appear to be nothing to worry about. The risk that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) abandons... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update End of income squeeze still in sight Given the latest round of utility price rises and a further slowdown in pay growth, it might seem that the squeeze on household incomes is never going to end. However, we remain optimistic that real... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze still dragging on spending, but not so badly Although real earnings are still being squeezed hard, one positive factor for households is that the pace of the Government's fiscal tightening is easing a bit ahead of 2015's general election. But... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ILO unemployment won’t necessarily follow claimant count down The claimant count measure of unemployment has been falling more sharply than the wider ILO measure used by the MPC in its forward guidance on interest rates. While the claimant count is a timelier... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will 'Help to Buy' be a block to rebalancing? The Government's Help to Buy (HTB) Scheme has been criticised for stoking a potential house price bubble and exposing the taxpayer to unwarranted risks. A more overlooked danger arises from the... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Oct.) We think that this Wednesday’s labour market figures will show that the unemployment rate held steady in August, which could prompt markets to push back further their expected timing of the first rise... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC likely to have been united in standing pat With interest rate expectations dropping back a bit over the last month and the recovery continuing apace, today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave policy unchanged was... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Outlook for property costs positive despite business rates rise Next week’s inflation figures look set to confirm that retailers will be burdened with another fairly hefty rise in business rates in April. While pressure is growing on the coalition to support... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rates to stay low despite recovering economy Today we are publishing our latest UK Quarterly Review, in which we are revising up our growth forecasts. Stronger growth should not stop inflation falling back to target. It won’t prevent... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should retailers be worried by the minimum wage proposals? While tomorrow’s rise in the national minimum wage (NMW) is small, proposals to increase it significantly more in the future threaten to add to the pressure on retailers’ profit margins. But even if... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the pick-up in certain measures of broad money is another encouraging sign that the economy has turned a corner, the continued weakness of bank lending could prevent the economic recovery from... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) Growth in household credit continues to show no sign of breaking away from the subdued rates seen since 2008, with any nascent ‘bubble’ in the housing market not yet apparent in the borrowing data... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Q2 sees improvement in households' financial strength Today’s news on the state of households’ finances shows that incomes and saving recovered from the dips seen in Q1. With the financial position of households looking more sustainable, modest growth in... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Financial Policy Committee plays down bubble fears Today’s statement by the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) lacked drama. While the Committee is keeping a close eye on developments in the housing market, the approach for now is... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
